PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-28 Version:3

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1-4-4-812113-7
Rep+4+4+8-1-1-211213+6
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic143246
Republican213051
Independent123
pie

Analysis

By about this time next week, Bruce Braley concedes to Joni Ernst, giving the GOP 50 seats. The Senate majority will be decided in a Louisiana runoff, where Landreiu falls, making Orman's choice undeterminative.<br /> <br /> A bright spot for the Democrats is Georgia, with Michelle Nunn taking back the seat held by war hero Max Cleland until 2003. <br /> <br /> McConnell will get two years as Majority leader, I'm afraid.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

By about this time next week, Bruce Braley concedes to Joni Ernst, giving the GOP 50 seats. The Senate majority will be decided in a Louisiana runoff, where Landreiu falls, making Orman's choice undeterminative.<br /> <br /> A bright spot for the Democrats is Georgia, with Michelle Nunn taking back the seat held by war hero Max Cleland until 2003. <br /> <br /> McConnell will get two years as Majority leader, I'm afraid.


Version: 2

In this scenario, Democrats hold onto seats in Iowa and Colorado. The GOP may net only 3 seats on election day, with runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia. Irregularities somewhere are bound to cause additional uncertainty. The GOP will have to pick off Landreiu in December and hold Georgia on - - - January 6? in order to get to 50 seats. A lot can happen in a month or two. Seems to me Nunn is beginning to turn the tide. In any case, the GOP will only hold 49 seats when the Senate organizes. Orman caucuses with the majority Democrats. If they do then win in Georgia, Orman (&/or King) can play kingmaker if he so chooses.


Version: 1

MAry Landreieu is a survivor. LA will have the closest results by percent in the country. AK will be decided by the fewest votes.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2014-10-29 @ 01:22:12 prediction Map
Yes, two years. Democrats are poised to gain 5-7 seats in 2016.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 7 6 434T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 21/35 54/70 77.1% pie 4 4 101T423
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 27 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T372
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T300
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T456
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T235
Aggregate Predictions 671/752 389/752 1060/1504 70.5% pie


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