Date of Prediction: 2014-10-28 Version:3
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Analysis
By about this time next week, Bruce Braley concedes to Joni Ernst, giving the GOP 50 seats. The Senate majority will be decided in a Louisiana runoff, where Landreiu falls, making Orman's choice undeterminative.<br /> <br /> A bright spot for the Democrats is Georgia, with Michelle Nunn taking back the seat held by war hero Max Cleland until 2003. <br /> <br /> McConnell will get two years as Majority leader, I'm afraid.
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Version: 3 By about this time next week, Bruce Braley concedes to Joni Ernst, giving the GOP 50 seats. The Senate majority will be decided in a Louisiana runoff, where Landreiu falls, making Orman's choice undeterminative.<br /> <br /> A bright spot for the Democrats is Georgia, with Michelle Nunn taking back the seat held by war hero Max Cleland until 2003. <br /> <br /> McConnell will get two years as Majority leader, I'm afraid. Version: 2 In this scenario, Democrats hold onto seats in Iowa and Colorado. The GOP may net only 3 seats on election day, with runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia. Irregularities somewhere are bound to cause additional uncertainty. The GOP will have to pick off Landreiu in December and hold Georgia on - - - January 6? in order to get to 50 seats. A lot can happen in a month or two. Seems to me Nunn is beginning to turn the tide. In any case, the GOP will only hold 49 seats when the Senate organizes. Orman caucuses with the majority Democrats. If they do then win in Georgia, Orman (&/or King) can play kingmaker if he so chooses. Version: 1 MAry Landreieu is a survivor. LA will have the closest results by percent in the country. AK will be decided by the fewest votes.
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