Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-31 Version:13

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	12	1	13	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	12	3	15	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	32	45
Republican	23	30	53
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
62	35	27

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 12

Kansas moves to Lean R. :(

Version: 11

New Hampshire moves to tossup after a series of polls show Brown gaining quickly on Shaheen.

Version: 10

Senator Walsh's withdrawal in Montana moves that race to Toss-up.

Version: 8

Based on the most recent polls.

Version: 7

With Mississippi going to a runoff in the GOP primary, I have to downgrade it to Lean R.

Version: 5

Based on recent polling, I'm adding Louisiana, Michigan, and North Carolina to my list of GOP gains, and moving several Dem holds to Tossups. My best guess is that the fallout of Obamacare seems to be hurting Democrats right now.

Version: 4

With Tom Cotton set to enter the race in Arkansas, I'm revising that one to a Toss-up and changing it from D to R. Also, with Grimes challenging McConnell in Kentucky, I'm changing that to a Toss-up, although I still expect McConnell to pull it out.

Version: 3

Updated Montana to Lean R now that Schweitzer has decided to stay out. Great news for us Republicans in our quest to retake the Senate!

Version: 1

Like with the governor's races, this is only a preliminary rating. A lot has to happen before we can get a good picture of these races.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	3	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	3	1	228	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	11	1	T	118
2020 President	50/56	32/56	82/112	73.2%	3	58	608	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	2	66	137	T	423
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	29/35	14/35	43/70	61.4%	2	200	417	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	1	301	295	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	31	40	T	149
2016 President	42/56	12/56	54/112	48.2%	5	47	660	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	17/34	48/68	70.6%	4	63	164	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	7/12	18/24	75.0%	1	63	3	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	7	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	13	4	4	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	17/36	47/72	65.3%	12	4	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	234	17	T	153
2012 President	53/56	33/56	86/112	76.8%	8	5	591	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	4	12	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	1	89	T	228
Aggregate Predictions	457/522	271/522	728/1044	69.7%