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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-31 Version:11

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages


I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong on election day, but I don't see it happening. I'll put out maybe one more update before Tuesday.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 10

The situation for the Democratic Party has continued to deteriorate since my last prediction. While Democratic control of the Senate is not out of the question, it does seem less likely than Republican control at this point. Colorado and Iowa seem like coin flips right now; those will be the states I will be following most closely over the final month, followed by Kansas and Alaska. Things are going to be completely gridlocked regardless.

Version: 9

The Republicans have quite clearly strengthened their position in the last month or so, as Georgia and Arkansas no longer look to be tossup states, while Democratic tossup states such as Colorado and Iowa have remained tossups. In all honesty, this map is if anything overly optimistic for Democratic chances. I'll be watching Iowa the closest over the next few weeks, as gaining an open seat is likely the easier route for Republicans to take control of the Senate, rather than defeating an incumbent in Alaska, Colorado, or North Carolina.

Version: 8

A lot of tough calls for this map; so much of the polling in several of the key states comes from firms that I consider to be absolute garbage based on their track records, like Rasmussen, Wenzel, and Gravis. The biggest change is that I once again have McConnell trailing in Kentucky. The two races I'll be watching most closely in the short term are Colorado and Iowa; if the Democratic candidates can establish consistent leads in those states, it would significantly increase - though certainly not guarantee - their chances of holding on to the Senate, as there would be fewer paths to Republican control. On the other hand, if Iowa and Colorado look competitive a month or two from now, it is hard to imagine Democrats keeping the Senate.

Version: 7

Not much change from the previous map. I do feel like there is significantly more downside risk for the Democrats than upside potential, so this could become much more Republican very quickly, depending on how things develop between now and November. Also, Mississippi being in the Lean category is based on an assumption that McDaniel wins the runoff there. If, instead, Cochran manages to win, it will go back to being Safe Republican.

Version: 6

Moving a bit more toward the conventional wisdom on many of these races, at least in terms of the relative Dem/Rep order of the competitive states. Any outcome ranging from Democrats losing 2 seats to Democrats losing roughly 8 or 9 seats seems plausible. I've been considering moving the Colorado race to Lean Democratic; if Udall continues to maintain his small but consistent lead there in polling, I'll likely do so in the near future.

Version: 5

Just updated to add the new Oklahoma special election.

Version: 4

No change in the seat totals for either party, just the combination of tossups it takes for each to get there. Other changes include Alabama to 90% Republican (as Sessions appears to not be facing any opponent in November), Oregon to Solid Democratic (had been Lean D due to the lack of polling), Georgia to Lean R from Tossup (due to the likelihood of the GOP nominating a competent candidate there rather than a complete nut like Paul Broun), and Montana to Lean R from Solid R. I considered moving Arkansas to Lead D due to Pryor's substantial leans in the polling of late, but I ultimately felt that doing so was premature.

Version: 3

The situation for the Democratic Party has definitely deteriorated somewhat as the memory of the government shutdown has faded and President Obama's standing with the public was damaged by the launch of the health care exchanges. There are a number of seats which the Republicans are almost certain to gain (SD, WV, and MT), and I would say Senate control at this point is roughly a toss-up. I know many experts see a Republican takeover as slightly more likely than Democratic control, but I think they are over-estimating McConnell's chances of holding on in Kentucky.

Version: 2

Just refining my initial prediction somewhat. I feel I was probably too bearish on Democratic chances in Montana.

Version: 1

Sure it may be over a year before the actual election, but why not.

My thoughts on a few races:

Alaska: This should be a competitive race; only if the Republicans blow it by nominating Joe Miller would it not be. Slight edge to Senator Begich over Mead Treadwell, but not much of one.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor's numbers are very much in the danger zone for an incumbent, and Tom Cotton is going to be a formidable opponent against him. Unless the polls start looking different very soon, I'll likely be changing this to lean Repulbican.

Georgia: The Democrats have a solid candidate in Michelle Nunn, and the Repulbicans look likely to nominate another candidate in the Todd Akin/Richard Mourdock mold with either Paul Broun or Phil Gingrey. Still, I'm not yet willing to put Nunn ahead here just yet.

Iowa: Republicans seem to have done a very poor job of candidate recruitment here. Still not locked up this far out from an election, but Bruce Braley has a clear advantage.

Kentucky: The big prize for the Democrats, if they can pull it off. McConnell's numbers are in the same danger zone as Pryor's, and the Dems have gotten a very good candidate in Allison Lundergan Grimes. This will almost certainly end up a very close race, but right now I say advantage Democrats.

Louisiana: I'm pleasantly surprised by how well Mary Landrieu's numbers are holding up in a state that has been trending red. Borderline on tossup/lean at this point, but I'm willing to risk the lean call.

Maine: The only way the Republicans could screw this up is by not re-nominating Susan Collins. Given how right-wing the Maine GOP has gone of late, it can't be ruled out, but I'm not willing to bet on it at this point.

Michigan: I feel like a lot Democrats are missing how close this race looks. Terri Lynn Land is going to be a very tough opponent, and unless simple name recognition is the reason Gary Peters is polling so poorly at the present, this is likely to end up a close race.

Montana: The Democrats have managed a string of good luck in this state in recent years. I doubt that is going to continue in 2014, but I feel like I'd be a fool to say it is out of the question.

North Carolina: A similar situation to Louisiana, I'm similarly pleasantly surprised to see Hagan polling as well as she is. Given that this state is trending Democratic (unlike Louisiana) it is possible Senator Hagan may hold this seat for a long time.

South Dakota: Unlikely to be competitive, particularly if Mike Rounds wins the Republican primary as expected.

West Virginia: While Natalie Tennant is probably one of the better Democratic candidates who could have run in this state, I don't see Shelley Moore Capito losing. Only in the lean column because I haven't been a great judge of the political dynamics of West Virginia in past elections.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 300
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie

Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Carolina3 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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