Same map as before but with my surprise upset pick: Virginia. In 2013 the gubernatorial race was locked up, especially with a third party siphoning over 140,000 votes mostly from the right. Polls had McAuliffe up by almost 10 points and spending by outside groups favored McAuliffe by over 2-1. This was supposed to be a snoozer but instead he barely won in a nail bitingly close finish. Looking at that it's hard not to see this race as being closer than people and pundits think, but could there be an actual upset? Probably not but the chance is bigger than people think and it will definitely be closer than polls show.