Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-02 Version:29

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	22
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	12	1	13	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	-1	0	-1	11	3	14	+7
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	32	45
Republican	22	30	52
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	34	25

Analysis

Democratic Seats: Safe R - MT, WV Likely R - AR, SD Lean R - AK, LA, Toss-Up - CO, IA Lean D - NH, NC Republican Seats: Likely R - KY Toss-Up - GA, KS My prediction: R's pick up MT, WV, AR, SD, AK, LA, CO, and IA. I's pick up KS. R+8 or R+7 depending on Orman.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Seats to Watch: AK, AR, GA, IA, KY, LA, MI, MT, NC, and WV.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	3	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	3	1	88	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	66	48	T	118
2020 President	52/56	46/56	98/112	87.5%	4	6	74	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	27/35	60/70	85.7%	5	4	2	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	3	6	147	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	4	9	130	T	192
2018 Senate	34/35	27/35	61/70	87.1%	5	1	1	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	4	3	38	T	372
2016 President	50/56	32/56	82/112	73.2%	13	1	149	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	23/34	55/68	80.9%	16	1	2	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	11	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	6	0	8	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	29	2	42	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	24	2	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	5	2	17	T	153
Aggregate Predictions	386/428	292/428	678/856	79.2%