PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - dmurphy1984 (R-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:2

Prediction Map
dmurphy1984 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dmurphy1984 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-5-4-911112-9
Rep+5+4+900012315+9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic123244
Republican243054
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
623626
piepiepie

Analysis

Changed Iowa to a GOP gain, from DEM hold...polls seem to show the Republican with the momentum. Other than that, all other seats stay the same as before.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 1

NC, GA, and LA are tossups, but i see the GOP winning here mostly due to the Republican tendencies of these states.<br /> IA stays Democratic as the Republicans have tended to lose close races in Iowa.<br /> CO and KS are two states that are much more difficult to predict, imho. I think the strong conservative tendencies in Kansas may ultimately carry the day for Roberts, plus the general strength for Republicans during this election cycle. CO may go GOP as well just due to Democratic weaknesses this year.<br /> <br /> KY and SD, both will be close races, but I rank them as "leans" as recent polling points to GOP leads. AR I believe is trending more strongly GOP even though the race may still be a bit close. AK goes Republican as this has typically been a tough state for the Dems.<br /> MI and NH stay Democratic, as then are states with much stronger Democratic bases.<br /> <br /> MT and WV are lock GOP pickups.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: dmurphy1984 (R-NY) 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19 prediction Map
BAM!...well, not perfect, but pretty damn close! :D


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 1 12 24T483
P 2016 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 1 8T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 1 120T362
P 2014 Senate 36/36 26/36 62/72 86.1% pie 2 1 4T382
P 2012 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 508T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 0 144T343
P 2010 Senate 33/37 27/37 60/74 81.1% pie 4 0 54T456
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 7 474T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 5 6 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 176 107T312
P 2004 President 55/56 37/56 92/112 82.1% pie 15 11 126T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 436/468 297/468 733/936 78.3% pie


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