Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:18

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	12	1	13	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	12	3	15	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	32	45
Republican	23	30	53
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	35	23

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

I don't think the GOP will win 8 seats, but the Dems are starting to find themselves in big trouble as the playing field expands very quickly. Watch and wait...

Version: 2

I don't think Republicans will win the majority at this point. I think Democrats will win a couple of the tossups, but which ones? I think probably two to three of Shaheen, Hagan, Begich, Landrieu and Pryor will survive. I had originally thought the eventual Dem candidate in Michigan would be a lock, but I think the race now requires more attention as I think the entry of Land into the race makes it potentially very competitive. I think MI is one of the races to watch now, if she wins the primary.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	28/35	21/35	49/70	70.0%	4	6	271	T	305
2022 Governor	26/36	17/36	43/72	59.7%	5	6	260	T	272
2020 President	47/56	26/56	73/112	65.2%	5	10	667		684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	8	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	10	147	T	293
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	9	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	4	1	164	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	8/12	19/24	79.2%	2	1	1	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	18	1	60	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	12	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	228	138	T	153
2012 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	28	1	367	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	20/33	51/66	77.3%	11	1	94	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	3	48	131	T	228
2010 Senate	31/37	22/37	53/74	71.6%	42	0	167	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	24/37	55/74	74.3%	23	0	118	T	312
2008 President	49/56	44/56	93/112	83.0%	16	2	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	2	3	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	2	3	212	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	25/33	13/33	38/66	57.6%	1	1	402	T	465
2006 Governor	30/36	13/36	43/72	59.7%	1	1	232	T	312
2004 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	3	1	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	654/748	432/748	1086/1496	72.6%