PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - IceSpear (D-PA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-04 Version:22

Prediction Map
IceSpear MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
IceSpear MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-3-4-713114-7
Rep+3+4+7-10-111314+6
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic143246
Republican213051
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
603327
piepiepie

Analysis

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Begich wins due to his ground game, the conflicting polls, and the mystery of Alaska. Aside from that, no major changes. Republicans look set to take the Senate, though I certainly hope my prediction is wrong.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2014-11-04 @ 00:32:28 prediction Map
I'm seeing much the same but like you I hope I am wrong.

 By: IceSpear (D-PA) 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42 prediction Map
Here's hoping for 2012-esque widespread polling error! In our favor, of course, haha.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 31/33 23/33 54/66 81.8% pie 8 1 72T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 8 3 56T
P 2017 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 11 1T
P 2016 President 49/56 33/56 82/112 73.2% pie 7 1 149T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 22/34 54/68 79.4% pie 7 1 6T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 7 1 67T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 3 1 57T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 22 0 21T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 18/36 48/72 66.7% pie 22 0 73T
Aggregate Predictions 220/248 157/248 377/496 76.0% pie



Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Carolina3 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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