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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-04 Version:10
Prediction Map
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
Analysis
My rating system is based on data compiled from 18 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 9 My rating system is based on data compiled from 18 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up. Version: 8 My rating system is based on data compiled from 17 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up. Version: 7 My rating system is based on data compiled from 17 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up. Version: 6 My rating system is based on data compiled from 14 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up. Version: 5 My rating system is based on data compiled from 14 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up. Version: 4 My rating system is based on data compiled from 13 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up. Version: 3 August 2014 Update: Colorado from Strong D to Lean D, Iowa from Strong D to Lean D, Michigan from Lean D to Strong D<br /> <br /> May 2014 Update: Louisiana from Lean D to Lean R, Montana from Lean R to Strong R Version: 2 Louisiana from Lean D to Lean R, Montana from Lean R to Strong R
Version History Member Comments
User's Predictions
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