PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - DennisW (D-VA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2013-03-24 Version:1

Prediction Map
DennisW MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
DennisW MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages


Mitch McConnell placed himself in a personal battle against the president. He lost this battle and, even though he gained some esteem from working on the compromise that avoided the cliff, he lost the battle and presented petty in his singular focus on the presidential election.

He spear headed the movement to sequester in the Senate. This will be unpopular for the Republicans as it threatens to weaken our military. We again hear Iran is getting closer to having a bomb and national security will be an issue. His position in the forefront of insisting on sequester will hurt him with moderate voters.

He entered the Senate with a modest personal worth at about one hundred thousand dollars. He is now worth more than thirteen million dollars which he made from his salary as a Senate leader and through his investments. He now tells his voters they have to do with less. This will also hurt him with moderate voters.

He may be challenged on the right from a Tea Party representative, but should weather that challenge. A primary battle will not damage his reelection bid. He will lose a tight race because he will not appeal to moderates.

Member Comments
 By: SawxDem (I-NH) 2013-03-24 @ 21:41:31 prediction Map
I disagree. All plausible candidates seem to be steering away from challenging McConnell. This leaves Democrats with Ashley Judd, whose liberal views will be turned down no matter how unpopular McConnell is. This is Kentucky that we're talking about, which isn't very swingy.

As for your others, I certainly don't see WV flipping. Shelley Moore Capito has 70% approval among Republicans, and Rockefeller is gone.

 By: SawxDem (I-NH) 2013-03-30 @ 21:51:14 prediction Map
Scratch that Kentucky comment, Judd is out and the Dems have a legitimate candidate in Grimes.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2014 Senate 25/36 10/36 35/72 48.6% pie 1 590 372T382
P 2013 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 226 138T153
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 0 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 12/33 43/66 65.2% pie 2 2 221T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 4/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 4 157T228
Aggregate Predictions 123/138 68/138 191/276 69.2% pie

Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Carolina3 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

Back to 2014 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home

Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved