Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-19 Version:97

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	22
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	12	1	13	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	-1	0	-1	11	3	14	+7
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	32	45
Republican	22	30	52
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	34	25

Analysis

Democrats will have a net loss of 5 to 8 seats. They will lose MT,WV,SD,AK,and AR in November- They lose LA in the December runoff. Orman(KS) has to decide which side he wants to caucus with. Democrats will hold onto MI,NH,and NC, Republicans will hold onto KY and GA. IA and CO are pure Tossups.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-19 @ 22:16:34
Which soon to be US Señator is likely to be a one-termer. <br /><br /> Lankford(R-OK) <br /><br /> Capito(R-WV) <br /><br /> Braley(D-IA) <br /><br /> Peters(D-MI)<br /><br /> Cassidy(R-LA)<br /><br /> Gardner(R-CO)<br /><br /> Cotton(R-AR)<br /><br /> Daines(R-MT)<br /><br /> Rounds(R-SD) <br /><br /> Perdue(R-GA) <br /><br /> Orman(I-KS)<br /><br /> Sasse(R-NE)<br /><br /> Sullivan(R-AK) <br /><br /> The answer is Gardner(R-CO) Potential Democratic challengers are Romanoff or Polis. Last Edit: 2014-10-19 @ 22:39:11

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-19 @ 23:14:13
Democratic victories in 2014<br /> MI-Peters-D 45<br /> NH-Shaheen-D 46<br /> NC-Hagan-D 47 <br /> IA-Braley-D 48 <br /> Before the LA runoff and Orman-KS deciding which party to caucus with. Republicans will end up with 50 seats. Cassidy-R wins the LA runoff.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-20 @ 09:48:18
Since 1994- No more than Two Democratic incumbent US Senators were defeated for re-election.<br /> Sasser-TN and Wofford-PA in 1994<br /> Mosley Braun-IL in 1998<br /> Robb-VA in 2000<br /> Cleland-GA and Carnahan-MO in 2002<br /> Daschle-SD in 2004<br /> Lincoln-AR and Feingold-WI in in 2010<br /> The 2014 Senate Election cycle- 4 Democratic Incumbent US Senators are in danger of losing re-election in November- Pryor-AR,Begich-AK,Udall-CO,and Hagan-NC. <br /> The last time more than 2 Democratic incumbent US Senators was in 1980. <br /> Likely scenario in 2014 is Republicans hold onto vulnerable Republican held seats in GA,KS,and KY, win open Democratic held seats in MT,WV,and SD. Democratic incumbents Pryor-AR and Begich-AK lose re-election. Landrieu-LA has to compete in the December runoff. 50R 49D Landrieu-D loses the December runoff. <br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-20 @ 12:13:54
What would happen if Roberts-KS becomes the only incumbent that loses re-election in November? <br /> Democrats lose the open seats in MT,WV,SD,and IA. Democrats will have a net loss of 4 seats 3 if Orman-KS caucuses with the Democrats.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-21 @ 15:02:35
How big is the Republican Senate Majority in 2014? <br /> Republicans hold onto KY(McConnell-R defeats Grimes-D by 5), GA(Perdue-R defeats Nunn-D in the January runoff), and KS(if Orman-I wins- he has to decide which party to caucus with. In November, Republicans are favored to Democratic held seats in MT,WV,SD,AR,AK,CO,and IA. 50R 47D and 3(LA,GA,and KS) Cassidy-LA wins the December runoff, Perdue-GA wins the January runoff, Orman-KS caucuses with the Republicans as does King-ME and Manchin-WV. 55R 45D <br /> Democrats chances of regaining control of the U.S. Senate in 2016 is based on Bennet-CO winning re-election against a top tier GOP challenger and Reid-NV winning re-election against Sandoval. Due to higher Democratic turnout in 2016, plus the likelihood of Hillary Clinton carrying both states in 2016, Both are likely to be Democratic holds. Democrats will need to win 5 Republican held seats. <br /> 1)WI- Feingold,Kind,or Burke-D <br /> 2)NH- Hassan,Porter,or Kuster-D <br /> 3)PA- Sestak or Kane-D <br /> 4)IL- Madigan,Vallas,Simon,or Hynes-D <br /> 5)AZ- Giffords or Kelly-D <br /> FL,GA,KY,MO,and NC are expected to be competitive. <br /> Orman-KS and King-ME will caucus with Democrats in 2017 52D 48R <br /> 2018- Vulnerable Democratic held seats are FL,IN,MO,MT,ND,OH,and WI. <br /> Nelson-FL retires, Scott-R is the Republican nominee, Democrats nominate Crist-D(Crist ran for US Senate in 2010 after 1 term as Governor) Dem hold.<br /> Donnelly-IN faces Pence-R (Tossup-D) <br /> McCaskill-MO faces a more Rightwing challenger than she had in 2012- Democratic hold. <br /> Tester-MT and Heitkamp-ND face the at large US House members (Tossup-D) <br /> Brown-OH faces Kasich-R (Tossup-D) <br /> Baldwin-WI faces Walker-R or Ryan-R (Democratic hold) <br /> Democrats will pick up NV- Horsford-D and AZ-Sinema-D. 54D 46R <br /> In 2020 Gardner-CO,Ernst-IA,and Perdue-GA will be vulnerable.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50
2016 US Senate Election<br /> Democrats are favored to hold onto<br /> HI,VT,NY,OR,MD-open,CT,WA,CA-open,and CO. 45 seats.<br /> Republicans are favored to hold onto<br /> AL,AK,AR,GA,ID,IN,IA,KS,KY,LA,ND,OK,SC,SD,and UT. 45 seats. <br /> With NV, Democrats need to win IL,WI,PA,and either NH,OH,or FL. <br /> Without NV, Democrats need to win IL,WI,PA,and NH,OH,or FL plus AZ-McCain-R loses in the GOP primary to a rightwing nutcase who then loses in a General Election to Giffords or Sinema. <br />

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%