PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - An Antineutrino (R-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:17

Prediction Map
An Antineutrino MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
An Antineutrino MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-812113-8
Rep+4+4+8-10-111314+7
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133245
Republican223052
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593425
piepiepie

Analysis

One day remains. I have finally decided to flip Alaska; the prospect of a Begich upset is looking much less likely although I will not be surprised at all if he pulls it out. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Alaska is the race to watch tomorrow. <br /><br /> It's hard to believe how far things have come in the last few months- throughout 2013 my predictions were static at R+3, with SD and WV as pickups and MT, AR and GA flipping in and out of Republican hands. <br /><br /> After 2012 I'm reluctant to predict such a good night for Republicans, but this time all indications are pointing to it. So my final projection ends up being more favorable to Republicans than any before it: R+7 with the possibility of R+8 if Orman caucuses with Republicans. Aside from that, well, we'll just have to see if this truly works out.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 32/35 24/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 311 147T305
P 2022 Governor 31/36 25/36 56/72 77.8% pie 1 311 158T272
P 2020 President 53/56 45/56 98/112 87.5% pie 2 132 74T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 22/35 52/70 74.3% pie 3 97 194T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 138 51T293
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 4 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 5 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 3 40T149
P 2016 President 50/56 37/56 87/112 77.7% pie 14 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 23/34 55/68 80.9% pie 11 4 2T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 9 3 67T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 274 72T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 17 1 42T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 17/36 47/72 65.3% pie 12 1 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 2 17T153
Aggregate Predictions 381/425 285/425 666/850 78.4% pie



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