PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:34

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-3-712214-7
Rep+4+3+7-10-111314+6
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic143246
Republican213051
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593326
piepiepie

Analysis

Final Predictions for 2014 Senate Race: GOP retakes U.S. Senate in massive repudiation of Obama Administration.<br /> <br /> With less than a day to go till Election Day, the GOP is poised to retake the U.S. Senate:<br /> <br /> Maine: Susan Collins is re-elected easily in a landslide.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire: Scott Brown loses narrowly to Jeanne Shaheen. Brown had trailed most of the race to Shaheen by double digits. He started closing the gap to even. However Shaheen is the most popular politician in the history of the United States of America. Brown attacked Shaheen as a Senator that voted 99% in favor of Obama, who approval rating in N.H. has collapsed to below 40%. He also attacked Shaheen over Ebola virus, now in America, and the radical terrorist organization ISIS. Shaheen attacked Brown as being a pawn of the radical organization known only as the Koch Brothers, and as a radical Teapublican. This race is very close, but Shaheen has the narrow edge.<br /> <br /> Massachusetts: Markey is in control of this race.<br /> <br /> Rhode Island: Jack Reed will win in a massive, overwhelming landslide.<br /> <br /> New Jersey: Corey Booker, who is a moderate senator, who has worked with Sen. Rand Paul on sentencing reform, will win easily.<br /> <br /> Delaware: Sen. Chris Coons, will get another term.<br /> <br /> West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito, will take this seat for the Republicans, in an awesome wave.<br /> <br /> Virginia: Gillespie has been nipping at Warner's heels, however, Warner should win comfortably.<br /> <br /> North Carolina: Originally, Kay Hagan was allegedly one the most toxic, and controversial incumbents in the nation, having provided the decisive vote for Obamacare. Now she is the slight favorite to win. Hagan benefited from having had a picture perfect campaign. Secondly she benefitted from a Libertarian in Sean Haugh that is taking 8-9 percent in recent polls. Thirdly she is benefitting from a lousy candidate in Thom Tillis that allowed the legislature to back Christianity as the state religion. Ouch! Hagan ran away from President Barack Obama as humanly possible and will reap the benefits for that. Hagan will win, but this race is close.<br /> <br /> South Carolina: Both Scott and Graham will easily win. But Tim Scott will win by more. Why? Easy. Graham is a neocon and supports amnesty for illegal aliens, whereas Tim Scott absolutely is not and does not.<br /> <br /> Georgia: There was a point where this race looked it would go to a run off. Now it looks like David Perdue could win outright. Libertarian Amanda Swafford is a threat to both candidates. But even if Perdue falls short, he will certainly win the run-off in January.<br /> <br /> Alabama: Sessions will win in a massive landslide.<br /> <br /> Mississippi: Cochran wins bigtime.<br /> <br /> TN: Bet on Lamar Alexander to win.<br /> <br /> Kentucky: Grimes had a small chance, but McConnell is going to win in a state where Obama's approval rating is below sea level. Grime's sins include being anti-coal and not endorsing Obama, when everyone knows she was in fact and Obama voter. Grimes was a favorite of Obama people, but her actual campaign was malpractice. Shameful.<br /> <br /> Michigan. Gary Peters wins. Land started with lots of potential but her bizarre campaign failed to win over undecided.<br /> <br /> Minnesota: Al Franken will easily win a second term over McFadden. Franken stayed above the fray and will be rewarded.<br /> <br /> Iowa: Joni Earnst v. Bruce Braley. (Not Bailey as Michelle Obama claimed, nor is he a gubernatorial candidate as Obama claimed.) Iowa is ground zero for presidential elections, and where Braley has trailed Joni Ernst for weeks. But Braley is closing the gap, and this trial lawyer is going to show this hog castrator, just what it means to be a come from behind victor. As an aside I have a great amount of respect for Sen. Tom Harkin.<br /> <br /> Arkansas: Sen. Tom Cotton. Please see the great movie Religulous by Bill Maher to see Mark Pryor in action. I promise you you will enjoy it. And that's it for Pryor, enjoy!<br /> <br /> Louisiana: Bill Cassidy wins the run off in December.<br /> <br /> Texas: Sen. John Cornyn easily:<br /> <br /> Oklahoma: Republicans win both seats in landslides.<br /> <br /> Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent, wins. Orman's caucus goals are unknown. Orman mean freedom from party, from ideology, from party bosses like Harry Reid and Mitch McConnoll, freedom from convention. This is the state where independents and moderates break free of the suffocating two-party system. Tis glorious.<br /> <br /> Nebraska: Sasse wins, in an awesome wave.<br /> <br /> South Dakota: This race has been quiet. Too quiet. This Rounds wins.<br /> <br /> The GOP will sweep races in Montana and Idaho and Wyomin in races that don't merit mention.<br /> <br /> Likewise the Democrats are favored in Hawaii and Oregon.<br /> <br /> In Alaska, perhaps the closest Senate race right now, Mark Begich and Dan Sullivan battle for victory. Either outcome is possible but Sullivan has a very slight edge.<br /> <br /> Colorado: Udall, who has a great set of issues, decided to run a strange, single issue campaign. Gardner defeats Udall is the largest upset of the night.<br /> <br /> N.M: What happened here? The race between Udall and Weh wasn't supposed to be close. Udall wins, but the margin will surprise many analysts.<br />


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2014-11-03 @ 22:37:26 prediction Map
Did I forget Illinois? That's because this race is a total snooze. Dick Durbin is going to get another term.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2014-11-03 @ 22:47:38 prediction Map
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said that President Obama claims that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. So it comes to this, Obama or BushCountry. One of our's credibility is on the line here. Who's going to be?

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2014-11-03 @ 22:51:59 prediction Map
Now, look, before my longtime Dave Leip U.S. Election Atlas friends get snarky with me: remember, right or wrong, I have called them as I see them. Furthermore, why is it that White House press secretaries have to be so bald faced? I understand that spinning the news it their job, but why the bare faced lies?<br />

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2014-11-04 @ 00:22:06 prediction Map
Ha ha, predicting a win tomorrow is hardly a 'bald faced lie,' BC, its a prediction, as yours is here. Nice write-up, I think Senator Harkin would gag if Ernst succeeded him. Thank-you for the tip on Religulous, it was hilarious! I restrained myself from posting it afraid of offending the sensibilities of my Christian school daughter. I'll have to check up on the Udalls. Mo was an icon.

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01 prediction Map
Liberal heads would explode and it would be a very tough day indeed if Shaheen were to loose to Brown, Hagen to Tillis, or if the likes of Joni Ersnt won/wins Harkin's seat. The rest can be written off as the cycle of off year elections and good geography for the GOP. The mirror image is coming in 2016.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie



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