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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-29 Version:3
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
Analysis
I continue to refuse to believe that Iowa is going to elect Joni Ernst, so that one stays narrowly for Braley.<br /> <br /> Begich has experienced a revival in Alaska, so I continue to project him a narrow favorite for reelection.<br /> <br /> I now think Cotton will beat Pryor in Arkansas.<br /> <br /> Orman takes over in Kansas, but the 3 way race that has materialized in SD harms Democratic chances there.<br /> <br /> I'm increasingly bullish on Nunn, but think that she needs very strong African American turnout to win, at this time I can't project the turnout level I think she needs, so that one stays R, but narrowly.
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