PredictionsEndorse2016 Senatorial Predictions - nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-07-16 Version:212

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-16 @ 10:33:30 prediction Map
Landslide Democratic Victory to Landslide Republican Victory.<br /> Solid Democratic<br /> CA (Harris-D)37<br /> HI (Schatz-D)38<br /> NY (Schumer-D)39<br /> VT (Leahy-D)40<br /> CT (Blumenthal-D)41<br /> MD (Van Hollen-D)42<br /> OR (Wyden-D)43<br /> WA (Murray-D)44<br /> Likely Democratic<br /> CO (Bennet-D)45<br /> Lean Democratic<br /> IL (Duckworth-D)46<br /> WI (Feingold-D)47<br /> Tossup Democratic<br /> IN (Bayh-D)48<br /> NV (Cortez Masto-D)49<br /> NH (Hassan-D)50<br /> Tossup Republican<br /> FL (Rubio-R)31<br /> PA (Toomey-R)32<br /> OH (Portman-R)33<br /> Lean Republican<br /> NC (Burr-R)34<br /> AZ (McCain-R)35<br /> MO (Blunt-R)36<br /> Likely Republican<br /> IA (Grassley-R)37<br /> GA (Isakson-R)38<br /> LA (Kennedy-R)39<br /> AK (Murkowski-R)40<br /> KY (Paul-R)41<br /> Solid Republican<br /> AR (Boozman-R)42<br /> SC (Scott-R)43<br /> KS (Moran-R)44<br /> AL (Shelby-R)45<br /> OK (Lankford-R)46<br /> ND (Hoeven-R)47<br /> SD (Thune-R)48<br /> UT (Lee-R)49<br /> ID (Crapo-R)50<br />

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-16 @ 10:59:54 prediction Map
Assuming Warren (D-MA) is Clinton VP runningmate and Clinton/Warren-D ticket wins and Democrats end up with a 50 US Senate Seats(Hold onto NV and Pick up IL,WI,IN,and NH). Democrats will be in majority control of the US Senate from Jan 1 2017(when the new Senators get sworn in) to Jan 20 2017 (when Warren-D gets sworn in as VP). Republicans get back in the majority in Jan 21 2017(when MA GOP Governor Baker fills the US Senate vacancy) Democrats get back in the majority in June 2017 (when Democrats win the MA US Senate Special Election).<br /> Similar situation is likely to occur if Booker (D-NJ) becomes VP. Chiesa(R-NJ) could be caretaker.<br />

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-16 @ 12:29:31 prediction Map
If Warren (D-MA) or Booker (D-NJ) is elected Vice President and Democrats pick up 4 US Senate Seats<br /> IL-Duckworth-D unseats Kirk-R<br /> IN-Bayh-D defeats Young-R to succeed Coats-R<br /> NH-Hassan-D unseats Ayotte-R<br /> WI-Feingold-D unseats Johnson-R<br /> Democrats keep NV (Cortez Masto-D defeats Heck-R to succeed Reid-D)<br /> Democrats regain control of the US Senate in Jan 3 2017(new US Senators get sworn in),lose control in Jan 20 2017(Warren-MA or Booker-NJ resign to become VP),regain control in in the end of June 2017 when Democrats win the MA US Senate Special Election or the NJ US Senate Special Election. <br /> Democrats could remain in the majority if Schumer (D-NY) and King (I-ME) convinces Collins (R-ME) to switch to the Independent/caucus with Democrats in Jan 2017. <br /> If Kaine (D-VA) is elected Vice President, Democrats need to win special election in Nov 2017<br /> If Brown (D-OH) is elected Vice President,Democrats lose control of the US Senate in Jan 20 2017 and will be unlikely to get it back. Republicans are favored to win Nov 2018 special election in OH plus Republicans could pick up seats in the US Senate in 2018.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 20 4 10T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 221 4 164T362
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T300
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T343
Aggregate Predictions 227/251 161/251 388/502 77.3% pie

Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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