Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-07-17 Version:213

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	20
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+1	+4	0	0	0	7	3	10	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-3	-1	-4	19	1	20	-4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	34	48
Republican	20	30	50
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-17 @ 10:20:39
Democrats are strongly favored to win<br /> 1)CA-Harris-D 37(landslide margin against another D-Sanchez)<br /> 2)HI-Schatz-D 38(landslide margin)<br /> 3)NY-Schumer-D 39(landslide margin)<br /> 4)VT-Leahy-D 40(landslide margin)<br /> 5)CT-Blumenthal-D 41(landslide margin)<br /> 6)OR-Wyden-D 42(landslide margin)<br /> 7)MD-Van Hollen-D 43(landslide margin)<br /> 8)WA-Murray-D 44(landslide margin)<br /> 9)CO-Bennet-D 45(low double digit margin)<br /> 10)IL-Duckworth-D 46(high single digit margin)<br /> 11)WI-Feingold-D 47(high single digit margin)<br /> 12)IN-Bayh-D 48 (high single digit margin)<br /> If Hillary Clinton-D selects a sitting Democratic US Senator from a state with a Republican Governor - Warren-MA,Booker-NJ,or Brown-OH as her VP runningmate.Democrats need to win 3 Tossup races.<br /> 1)NV-Cortez Masto-D <br /> 2)NH-Hassan-D<br /> 3)does Brown help Strickland-OH ?,does Portman-R replace Brown in Jan 20 2017, when Brown becomes VP. OH special election takes place in 11/2018.-Portman-R will be favored.<br /> 3)could Booker-NJ help McGinty-PA?, NJ special election takes place in 6/2017. Codey-D will be favored to win special election if he runs.<br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-17 @ 18:10:54
2016 is similar to 2000. Democrats have 46 US Senate seats like they did in 2000. Democratic Vice Presidential nominee is likely to be a sitting US Senator from a state with a Republican governor (Warren-MA or Booker-NJ), 2000 it was Lieberman-CT/CT had a Republican Governor-Rowland.<br /> In 2000-Democrats ended up with 50 US Senate Seats Lost NV (Ensign-R replaced Bryan-D) and VA (Allen-R replaced Robb-D) <br /> Picked up <br /> DE (Carper-D replaced Roth-R)<br /> FL (Nelson-D replaced Mack-R)<br /> MI (Stabenow-D replaced Abraham-R)<br /> MN (Dayton-D replaced Grams-R)<br /> MO (Carnahan-D replaced Ashcroft-R)<br /> WA (Cantwell-D replaced Gorton-R)<br /> Bush-R narrowly won the Presidential Election. Democrats regained control of the US Senate in 2001 when Jeffords-VT switched parties.<br /> In 2016- Democrats will get 50 seats without NV by winning <br /> IL-Duckworth-D<br /> WI-Feingold-D<br /> IN-Bayh-D<br /> NH-Hassan-D<br /> OH-Strickland-D or <br /> Democrats get 50 seats with NV by winning <br /> IL-Duckworth-D<br /> WI-Feingold-D<br /> IN-Bayh-D<br /> NH-Hassan-D<br /> If Trump-R wins the Presidential Election,Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate is convincing Collins-ME to switch parties. <br /> If Clinton/Warren-D or Clinton/Booker-D wins the Presidential Election, Democrats have majority in the US Senate from Jan 3 2017 to Jan 20 2017,If Democrats win the 6/2017 special election in MA or NJ,Democrats get back in the majority,

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%