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Date of Prediction: 2016-08-04 Version:218

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 163

Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate in 2016 is winning <br /> Lean Democratic <br /> 45)CO-Bennet-D<br /> 46)IL-Duckworth-D<br /> 47)WI-Feingold-D<br /> Tossup<br /> 48)FL-Murphy-D<br /> 49)NV-Cortez Masto-D<br /> 50)NH-Hassan-D<br /> 51)OH-Strickland-D<br />

Version: 162

Democrats regain control of the US Senate by winning vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats in CO-Bennet-D and NV-OPENReid-D/Cortez Masto-D and winning vulnerable Republican held US Senate seats in IL-Kirk-R/Duckworth-D,WI-Johnson-R/Feingold-D,NH-Ayotte-R/Hassan-D,OH-Portman-R/Strickland-D and FL-OPENRubio-R/if Murphy-D is the Democratic nominee plus Democratic nominee for POTUS Clinton or Sanders wins the Presidential Electoral College.

Version: 110

This is tribute to former Arkansas US Senators Dale Bumpers who died at the age 90 last week.<br /> Dale Bumpers represented the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. Unlike the recent former Democratic US Senators Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Bumpers made a good decision retiring from the US Senate in 1998, a Democrat but a wrong Democrat replaced him.<br /> A Bumpers retirement in 2004 would have end up with a Republican replacing him due to Bush/Cheney coattails. A Bumpers retirement in 2010 would have resulted in a Republican replacing him. Republican wave.

Version: 34

Democrats guide to regaining majority control of the US Senate.<br /> Win US Senate races in CA,CO,CT,HI,IL,MD,NY,OR,VT,WA,and WI,-47D plus pure Tossup Races in <br /> NV and OH -49D and wild card races in<br /> AZ-McCain-R loses the Republican nomination to Ward-R who ends up making a gaffe in the General Election.<br /> FL-Murphy-D wins the Democratic nomination or Grayson-D faces Conteras Lopez-R or Desantis-R in the General Election.<br /> IN-Stutzman-R wins the Republican nomination and makes a Mourdock like gaffe in the General Election<br /> NH-Hassan-D decides to run for the US Senate.<br />

Version: 32

2016 US Senate Election.<br /> Democrats are strongly favored to win<br /> 37)CA-Harris-D<br /> 38)CT-Blumenthal-D<br /> 39)HI-Schatz-D<br /> 40)MD-Edwards-D<br /> 41)NY-Schumer-D<br /> 42)OR-Wyden-D<br /> 43)VT-Leahy-D<br /> 44)WA-Murray-D<br /> Republicans are strongly favored to win<br /> 31)AL-Shelby-R<br /> 32)AK-Murkowski-R<br /> 33)AR-Boozman-R<br /> 34)GA-Isakson-R<br /> 35)ID-Crapo-R<br /> 36)IA-Grassley-R<br /> 37)KS-Moran-R<br /> 38)KY-Paul-R<br /> 39)LA-Boustany-R<br /> 40)ND-Hoeven-R<br /> 41)OK-Lankford-R<br /> 42)SC-Scott-R<br /> 43)SD-Thune-R<br /> 44)UT-Lee-R<br /> Democrats are favored to win<br /> 45)CO-Bennet-D<br /> 46)IL-Duckworth-D<br /> 47)WI-Feingold-D<br /> Republicans are favored to win<br /> 45)MO-Blunt-R<br /> 46)NC-Burr-R<br /> Democrats are slightly favored to win<br /> 48)AZ-Kirkpatrick-D(if McCain loses in the primary)<br /> 49)FL-Murphy-D <br /> 50)IN-Hill-D(if Stutzman-R wins the primary)<br /> 51)NV-Cortez Masto-D<br /> 52)NH-if Hassan-D runs<br /> 53)OH-Strickland-D<br /> 54)PA-McGinty-D<br /> Republicans will win<br /> 47)AZ-if McCain-R wins the primary<br /> 48)FL-if Grayson-D wins the primary<br /> 49)IN-if Holcomb-R or Young-R win the primary<br /> 50)NV-if Republicans win at the Presidential level.<br /> 51)NH-if Hassan-D does not run.<br /> 52)OH-if Republicans win at the Presidential level.<br />

Version: 2

NV is the only Democratic held US Senate seat that is likely to be a lean Republican takeover. <br /> Democrats are going to hold onto CO,WA,CA,OR,CT,MD,NY,VT,and HI- 45D <br /> Democrats will pick up Republican held seats in IL and WI- 47D <br /> Without NV, Democrats will need to win 3 more Republican held seats <br /> OH,PA,and FL.

Version: 1

Democrats will win CA,CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,VT,and WA by a double digit margin. 44D <br /> Democrats will win CO,IL,NV,and WI by a high single digit margin. 48D <br /> Democrats need to win FL and OH or NH or PA to regain control of the U.S. Senate.

Version History

Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-08-04 @ 18:33:25 prediction Map
Democrats are favored to hold onto CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,VT,and WA- 45D<br /> Democrats are favored to pick up IL,NH,and WI -48D<br /> Democrats need to win NV,OH,and PA.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 20 4 10T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 221 4 164T362
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T300
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T343
Aggregate Predictions 227/251 161/251 388/502 77.3% pie

Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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