Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-01 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	17
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	+1	+7	0	0	0	7	3	10	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-6	-1	-7	16	1	17	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	17	34	51
Republican	17	30	47
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
45	29	16

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

I think Ohio and Florida might be gone. This is probably way more realistic.

Version: 4

Clinton vs. Trump

Version: 1

4 seat pickups with Vice President Castro gets us the majority. 5 seats gets Schumer a working Democratic majority. I predict a six seat pickup initially with a Democratic presidential win producing a moderate enough wave to knock off some moderately strong incumbent Republicans in blue to purple states. Democrats can win it, but can they keep it, especially going into the 2018 elections with a Democratic President at the helm. Keep an eye on NC, AZ, MO, and IN. if they flip, they will flip in that order.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	279	1	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	24/35	59/70	84.3%	9	1	69	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	25/36	60/72	83.3%	10	1	66	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	61	111	T	118
2020 President	50/56	36/56	86/112	76.8%	20	5	529	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	18/35	49/70	70.0%	8	30	309	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	4	26	10	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	3	3	14	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	20/35	51/70	72.9%	11	1	211	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	14	3	205	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	99	40	T	149
2016 President	47/56	26/56	73/112	65.2%	10	4	496	T	678
2016 Senate	29/34	16/34	45/68	66.2%	11	7	277	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	6	25	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	7	8	T	112
2014 Senate	30/36	17/36	47/72	65.3%	18	1	261	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	17/36	46/72	63.9%	21	1	123	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	4	1	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	30	15	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	25/33	57/66	86.4%	14	2	5	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	7	5	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	39/52	10/52	49/104	47.1%	44	-	75	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	0/4	4/8	50.0%	4	64	79	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	37	6	181	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	19/37	53/74	71.6%	36	2	137	T	312
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	26	6	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	18	7	204	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	10/11	21/22	95.5%	5	43	3	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	16/52	59/104	56.7%	23	-	47	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	38/49	11/49	49/98	50.0%	4	-	55	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	160	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	19	1	46	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	18/36	52/72	72.2%	17	8	107	T	312
2004 President	53/56	20/56	73/112	65.2%	11	12	1564	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	886/992	519/992	1405/1984	70.8%