Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-05 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	20
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	18
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	0	+4	0	0	0	7	3	10	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-4	0	-4	18	2	20	-4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	34	48
Republican	20	30	50
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
41	32	9

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Changes: North Carolina: Tossup Ross (30%) ----> Tossup Burr (30%) --- Wisconsin: Tossup Feingold (50%) ----> Lean Feingold (50%) --- New Hampshire: Tossup Hassan (40%) ----> Tossup Hassan (30%) --- Nevada: Tossup Masto (40%) ----> Tossup Masto (30%) --- Pennsylvania: Tossup McGinty (40%) ----> Tossup McGinty (30%)

Version: 2

Fixed CA and NV

Version: 1

Note: Ind. States are just states with races that I don't care enough to research them.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	/56	/56	/112	%					682
2020 Senate	/35	/35	/70	%					422
2020 Governor	/11	/11	/22	%					292
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	92	14	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	18/35	50/70	71.4%	22	0	246	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	15	2	189	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	5	80	40	T	149
2016 President	50/56	17/56	67/112	59.8%	14	0	597	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	9/34	41/68	60.3%	5	3	336	T	362
Aggregate Predictions	151/166	67/166	218/332	65.7%