Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-05-17 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	7	3	10	+1
Rep	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	21	2	23	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	34	45
Republican	23	30	53
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	31	17

Analysis

Ron Johnson's highly controversial tenure comes to an end; Mark Kirk edges out the unproven Tammy Duckworth, and Pennsylvania Democrats fail to land a candidate other than Joe Sestak, who flames out against Pat Toomey in a rematch.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%	2	399	149	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	17/34	48/68	70.6%	1	541	164	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	6/12	14/24	58.3%	1	531	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	187	57	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	22/36	56/72	77.8%	1	92	99	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	14/36	44/72	61.1%	1	92	171	T	300
2012 President	48/56	30/56	78/112	69.6%	1	7	693	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	204/233	121/233	325/466	69.7%