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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:4

Prediction Map
Vosem MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Vosem MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+50+50007310+5
Rep000-50-517219-5
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic153449
Republican193049
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
473116
piepiepie

Analysis

Late break in the Senate races seems to be towards Rs; shifted IN (since Bayh has self-immolated) and NC (on the basis of early voting looking like just barely good enough for Burr) towards them. Final call is 51-49 D, with 4 races as tossups (so reasonably could be anywhere from 51-49 R to 53-47 D) with 2 more possible upsets if some of the underlying assumptions are incorrect (so, could go from 53-47 R all the way to 55-45 D; which is a useless prediction now that I write it down, but eh). <br /> <br /> Congrats to Duckworth and Masto, who I have as safe; who picked the right year and the right place to run and now seem like certain victors against some of the strongest candidates their opponent's party has to offer.<br /> <br /> Four incumbents who were supposed to be vulnerable the challenges to whom utterly failed to pan out, all of whom I expect to win by double-digits: McCain, Bennet, Grassley, Portman. Nice jobs, guys.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 44/56 23/56 67/112 59.8% pie 3 0 597T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 16/34 47/68 69.1% pie 4 0 213T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 8 2 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 7 2 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 0 98T
Aggregate Predictions 142/164 85/164 227/328 69.2% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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