Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-15 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	21
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	8
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	0	+4	0	-1	-1	7	2	9	+3
Rep	0	+1	+1	-4	0	-4	18	2	20	-3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	34	47
Republican	21	30	51
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
47	31	16

Analysis

GOP retains a 51-48-1 majority. FL elects another Republican while voting Bush for president. Rand Paul drops out of POTUS race and easily retains Senate seat in KY. McCain in AZ is primaried out and is narrowly replaced by another Republican. Several unpopular moderate Republicans are tossed in states like WI and IL. NV replaces Reid with a Republican.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	71	48	T	118
2018 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	1	357	246	T	483
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	116	40	T	149
2016 President	51/56	21/56	72/112	64.3%	1	359	527	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	16/34	47/68	69.1%	1	359	213	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	1	359	164	T	279
Aggregate Predictions	123/141	63/141	186/282	66.0%