PredictionsEndorse2016 Senatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:55

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+20+20007310+2
Rep000-20-220222-2
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic123446
Republican223052
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563224
piepiepie

Analysis

2016 Final Senate Prediction:<br /> <br /> Democrats net two seats, GOP retains control of Senate regardless of who wins at the top of the ballot for president. This needless to say is not the result that the Democrats hoped for, and this sets them up badly for what might be a brutal 2018 midterm election. It merits pointing out that, contrary to sentiment in some corners, Donald Trump simply was not a drag on the down ballot ticket, Republicans are coming out to vote for GOP Senate candidates, Trump is outpacing some of the down ballot races, voters want a check on Hillary Clinton, and the Republicans in the toughest spots, e.g. Toomey and Joe Heck, got there in part by not endorsing Trump in the first place. It also bears noting that, the decision by many prominent big league conservative donors to pour money into Senate races, as opposed to the presidential has had the salubrious out of limited GOP losses to a net of two, when many projections had had the GOP losing 5+ seats.<br /> <br /> These races are extremely close, and could determine the whole thing: Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Missouri.<br /> <br /> First to New Hampshire, where incumbent Republican Ayotte is in the fight of her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. Both incumbents are popular, both are well known, and a lot of money is being spent here. The race has see-sawed back and forth several times, but Ayotte should win by a nose.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania presents a marquee race of this cycle. Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has come out of nowhere to within a sliver of beating Toomey. This one is very close and the GOP really needs a hold here. Toomey will edge McGinty, but this one could require a recount.<br /> <br /> North Carolina is, along with Missouri, one of the surprises of the cycle. Republicans didn't really expect to need to help incumbent Sen. Burr here. Race has stayed close and Burr will win, but not by much.<br /> <br /> Indiana: After Coats retired, it was assumed the GOP would have not problem holding this seat. Then entered former incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh. Bayh started off well ahead, but Todd Young, Republican, closed the gap and appears to be pulling ahead at the last minute. Lots of ad money pouring in here.<br /> <br /> At the beginning of the cycle, it looked like Russ Feingold was going to easily defeat incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, Republican. Feingold was well ahead for most of the cycle, and Johnson, did not prepare well for what by all accounts was going to be a tough race. However, lots of outside ad money, has made the difference. It is much closer, but Johnson is still somewhat behind. Not so in Illinois where Republican Kirk is going down to landslide defeat. These are the two Democrat pickups.<br /> <br /> Missouri is another surprise race and is very, very close. Blunt is in serious trouble, and it will be a test of if GOP money made the difference. Calling it tentatively for Blunt.<br /> <br /> Then in Nevada, another close race and one that was the only good GOP pickup chance. Safe to say Republican Joe Heck blew it here. Many Trump voters are upset with if, and may not vote for him. This race is going down to the wire, and if the 2012 race was any indication, every vote matter here. Heck could still pull it off in what is a close race, but as of now, calling it...barely...for Democrat Cortez-Masto at the buzzer.


Prediction History
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie



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