Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	0	0	7	3	10	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	16	2	18	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	16	34	50
Republican	18	30	48
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
46	30	16

Analysis

11/8/2016 Final Call: D 52, R 46. I am going to call Missouri for Kander, because the state has a history of ticket-splitting. I think Clinton may pull Ross over in NC. Masto will hold Nevada.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	35/35	30/35	65/70	92.9%	1	0	3	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	1	0	11	T	272
2020 President	53/56	38/56	91/112	81.3%	3	6	359	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	19/35	51/70	72.9%	1	4	241	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	5	10	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	6	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	5	2	56	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	8	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	4	0	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	3/12	12/24	50.0%	2	0	164	T	279
2014 Senate	31/36	22/36	53/72	73.6%	5	0	158	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	3	1	145	T	300
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	8	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	20/33	51/66	77.3%	6	1	94	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	1	5	T	228
2010 Senate	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	2	1	91	T	312
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	7	0	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	1	0	96	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	14/52	45/104	43.3%	2	-	85	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	14/49	5/49	19/98	19.4%	1	-	162	T	235
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	4	0	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	16/36	51/72	70.8%	3	0	122	T	312
2004 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	30	2	14	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	798/907	531/907	1329/1814	73.3%