PredictionsEndorse2016 Senatorial Predictions - Political Lefty (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:1

Prediction Map
Political Lefty MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Political Lefty MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60007310+6
Rep000-60-616218-6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic163450
Republican183048
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
513021
piepiepie

Analysis

I think the toss-ups will break to the Democrats. North Carolina and Missouri give me the biggest trouble, while I'm most confident in Wisconsin and Nevada. Other than that, the toss-ups are pretty self-explanatory. Most of them have been close for some time now, except Indiana, which appears to have been slipping away from the Democrats.<br /> <br /> With this map, I'm predicting a Democratic Majority of 52-48. As far as a margin of error, I think Democrats will end up between 50-53 (a net gain of between 4-7 seats).


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 35/35 31/35 66/70 94.3% pie 1 0 1T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 1 0 5T272
P 2020 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 434T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 19/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 3 274T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 5 147T293
P 2016 President 47/56 27/56 74/112 66.1% pie 1 0 473T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 21/34 51/68 75.0% pie 1 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 0 119T279
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 1 0 56T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 0 17T153
P 2012 President 56/56 49/56 105/112 93.8% pie 2 0 4T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 1 0 2T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 0 24T228
P 2010 Senate 36/37 30/37 66/74 89.2% pie 1 0 4456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 0 11T312
P 2008 President 53/56 49/56 102/112 91.1% pie 7 1 3T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 4 1 9T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 2 1 9T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 101 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 16/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 184 257T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 160 107T312
Aggregate Predictions 614/659 454/659 1068/1318 81.0% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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