Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-08-05 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	28
Rep	5
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	5
Ind	2
Tos	4
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+2	+4	0	0	0	23	1	24	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-2	-4	4	1	5	-4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	28	23	51
Republican	5	42	47
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	29	19

Analysis

Basic midterm wave. Democrats pull off upset defenses in North Dakota and West Virginia while also gaining ground in the Southwest and a very slim victory in Tennessee. Biggest upset of the night will be Beto O'Rourke's victory over Ted Cruz, who starts to slide after an embarrassing scandal is revealed that further damages his reliability and honesty before Texas voters. Trump's invisibility at the latter stages, revenge for the 2016 non-endorsement speech at the RNC, will ultimately doom Cruz as O'Rourke appeals to underrepresented Texans to win.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	47/56	24/56	71/112	63.4%	2	12	670	T	684
2018 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	1	93	306	T	483
2014 Senate	31/36	13/36	44/72	61.1%	2	52	288	T	382
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	1	11	182	T	760
2010 Senate	27/37	9/37	36/74	48.6%	2	51	422	T	456
2010 Governor	20/37	10/37	30/74	40.5%	2	263	292	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	209/257	118/257	327/514	63.6%