PredictionsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - Ruby2014 (I-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-08 Version:5

Prediction Map
Ruby2014 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Ruby2014 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Tos16
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+10+1-70-717017-6
Rep+70+7-10-1538+6
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic182341
Republican154257
Independent202
pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: man_of_honor885 (R-PA) 2018-10-08 @ 15:31:56 prediction Map
No matter how much I would personally love to see Lou Barletta win in my state its not going to happen for the following reasons. To begin, Bob Casey is far too popular for Lou to beat. Second to that, is the fact of how out funded Lou Barletta is. Lastly, even though the polls aren't always 100% accurate, Lou Barletta is down by about 18% in the polls as compared to donald trump who was generally down by 4% in the state and won, my point being that 18% is well outside of the 6% margin of error. Also if states like wisconsin or Ohio are going Democratic then Indiana will as well. Its nothing personal but this is just unrealistic or Im not seeing something that you are in these races.

 By: Ruby2014 (I-OH) 2018-10-20 @ 13:53:47 prediction Map
John James went from being down by 18% to now being down by 9% which likely indicates that the Democratic senator may be struggling with working class voters. And if democrats are struggling there they may be struggling across the rust belt. And there are large numbers of undecideds. I saw a poll that had Lou ahead in northeast PA which is only a few hours from where I used to live for 13 years when I lived in South Williamsport PA. If yes doing well there I think that's a sign of something. I believe that the polls are also underpolling he blue collar vote as well even more this year and I'm making a bold prediction that will surprise alot of people.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 30/35 18/35 48/70 68.6% pie 11 0 306T
P 2018 Governor 30/36 20/36 50/72 69.4% pie 5 3 226T
P 2016 President 50/56 34/56 84/112 75.0% pie 11 0 87T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 19/34 50/68 73.5% pie 10 0 89T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 9 0 67T
Aggregate Predictions 150/173 96/173 246/346 71.1% pie



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