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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-14 Version:20

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem25
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2-10-123023+1
Rep+10+1-1-1-2527-1
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic252348
Republican84250
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Still not convinced that the shifts seen during the Kavanaugh confirmation fight will stick generally, but the shift in Tennessee has been enough that I feel I should at least switch it to Republican. A few other percentage and confidence adjustments as well, reflecting what looks like a more uncertain environment for the time being.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2018-10-15 @ 20:42:57 prediction Map
TN has actually trended back towards Blackburn for quite some time now...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2020 President
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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