PredictionsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - ground_x (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-16 Version:4

Prediction Map
ground_x MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
ground_x MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem25
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2-10-123023+1
Rep+10+1-1-1-2527-1
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic252348
Republican84250
Independent202
pie

Analysis

11/16/18: Three weeks out,the two nail-biters will be Missouri and Nevada. New Jersey, West Virginia and Montana seem to lean D; Tennessee and Texas lean R. Dems will probably win Arizona but lose North Dakota. So D +2, R +1, for 50-50.<br />


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: ground_x (D-NY) 2018-10-24 @ 13:44:26 prediction Map
11/23/18: No change from last week.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 0 67T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 2 56T
P 2016 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 8 0 246T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 4 0 252T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 2 0 164T
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 0 158T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 1 145T
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 1 182T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 1 94T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 1 5T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 100T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 2 1 91T
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 7 0 139T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 1 0 96T
P 2008 Dem Primary 31/52 14/52 45/104 43.3% pie 2 - 85T
P 2008 Rep Primary 14/49 5/49 19/98 19.4% pie 1 - 162T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 4 0 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 16/36 51/72 70.8% pie 3 0 122T
P 2004 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 30 2 14T
Aggregate Predictions 632/734 408/734 1040/1468 70.8% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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