Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-02 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-2	0	-2	22	0	22	-1
Rep	+2	0	+2	0	-1	-1	6	2	8	+1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	23	46
Republican	10	42	52
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Yet again I have moved Arizona into the democratic column for right now, but who knows if it will stay that way with only four more days which is hard to believe.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-02 @ 17:02:18
Mostly because Sinema appears to be a rather strong candidate as of right now, unlike in Nevada where it seems like we Dems have a weak candidate. Wait and see as always!

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-04 @ 08:04:18
It seems as if we have the exact same map again as well.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-06 @ 03:17:12
I flipped NV, because polls usually underestimate the Democrat there for whatever reason. I am undecided about that right now. NV, IN, MO, and AZ could go either way.

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-06 @ 15:31:40
Yeah that's what I ended up doing as well just to be safe

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	5	142	593	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	1	362	101	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	364	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	144	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	20/35	53/70	75.7%	11	0	132	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	6	2	94	T	372
Aggregate Predictions	159/176	109/176	268/352	76.1%