Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-05 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	12
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-3	0	-3	21	0	21	-3
Rep	+3	0	+3	0	0	0	6	3	9	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	23	44
Republican	12	42	54
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-06 @ 03:43:11
I love you my friend, but not surprisingly disagree on several states. I think you are overestimating the Republican Wave and Trump's popularity. The question that remains is will Dems turn out this year? We normally struggle in off-year elections, but 2018 seems to be exception so far. To me, Democratic turnout, or the lack thereof, will decide this election. I am also interested to see how independents vote as well, even though they are shrinking (sad but true) in both parties. Nelson in FL and Donnelly in IN look surprisingly good for the Dems right now (I am pleasantly shocked by both of them), and even though Heller has been leading in NV for the past month or so, early voting turnout for the Dems is strong there, plus polls in NV (I don't know why either) almost always underestimate the Democratic candidates there. I don't know if that's true statewide, but it is on a national level. I think AZ may go Democratic, simply because we have a strong Dem candidate there. MO I am leaning Republican, only because of the weak McCaskill, and Trump seems rather strong there as well. As I always say, wait and see as always! The Republican Party is stuck with Trump (I get the impression you strongly support him too edwardsna) for better or for worse. We will find out tomorrow, or maybe even later, since I think so many elections are so razor thin close right now they will take that long to decide, and I am not joking either. We live in a Purple Country right now, not a Red One, and not a Blue Country, but most states are sadly solidly Blue or Red. Very few Purple States on a national level. However, on the state level, most seem to be purple in this particular election, for whatever reason... Last Edit: 2018-11-06 @ 03:44:43

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:34:57
Like I expected the Red and Blue Waves never occurred. It was a Purple Wave instead. This country is a Purple Country right now, with mostly Red and Blue areas of it.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	279	49	T	115
2021 Governor	/2	/2	/4	0.0%		2459527			118
2020 President	49/56	35/56	84/112	75.0%	7	153	575	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	2	266	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	2	265	211	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	6	130	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	10	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	22/36	53/72	73.6%	6	3	164	T	372
2017 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	93	98	T	149
2016 President	51/56	32/56	83/112	74.1%	50	1	114	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	22/34	53/68	77.9%	27	1	16	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	9	1	25	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	11	0	8	T	112
Aggregate Predictions	254/288	174/288	428/576	74.3%