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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-05 Version:10

Prediction Map
edwardsna MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
edwardsna MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-30-321021-3
Rep+30+3000639+3
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic212344
Republican124254
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553223
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2018-11-06 @ 03:43:11 prediction Map
I love you my friend, but not surprisingly disagree on several states. I think you are overestimating the Republican Wave and Trump's popularity. The question that remains is will Dems turn out this year? We normally struggle in off-year elections, but 2018 seems to be exception so far. To me, Democratic turnout, or the lack thereof, will decide this election. I am also interested to see how independents vote as well, even though they are shrinking (sad but true) in both parties. Nelson in FL and Donnelly in IN look surprisingly good for the Dems right now (I am pleasantly shocked by both of them), and even though Heller has been leading in NV for the past month or so, early voting turnout for the Dems is strong there, plus polls in NV (I don't know why either) almost always underestimate the Democratic candidates there. I don't know if that's true statewide, but it is on a national level. I think AZ may go Democratic, simply because we have a strong Dem candidate there. MO I am leaning Republican, only because of the weak McCaskill, and Trump seems rather strong there as well. As I always say, wait and see as always! The Republican Party is stuck with Trump (I get the impression you strongly support him too edwardsna) for better or for worse. We will find out tomorrow, or maybe even later, since I think so many elections are so razor thin close right now they will take that long to decide, and I am not joking either. We live in a Purple Country right now, not a Red One, and not a Blue Country, but most states are sadly solidly Blue or Red. Very few Purple States on a national level. However, on the state level, most seem to be purple in this particular election, for whatever reason...

Last Edit: 2018-11-06 @ 03:44:43

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:34:57 prediction Map
Like I expected the Red and Blue Waves never occurred. It was a Purple Wave instead. This country is a Purple Country right now, with mostly Red and Blue areas of it.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 10 1 67T
P 2018 Governor 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 6 3 164T
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 93 98T
P 2016 President 51/56 32/56 83/112 74.1% pie 50 1 114T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 22/34 53/68 77.9% pie 27 1 16T
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 9 1 25T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 11 0 8T
Aggregate Predictions 158/178 108/178 266/356 74.7% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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