Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-2	0	-2	22	0	22	0
Rep	+2	0	+2	-1	-1	-2	5	2	7	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	23	47
Republican	9	42	51
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
53	33	20

Analysis

This is finally it. With the election on the horizon this is my final prediction for the us senate

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 10

Yet again I have moved Arizona into the democratic column for right now, but who knows if it will stay that way with only four more days which is hard to believe.

Version: 9

After looking at some new polling I analyzed that Bill Nelson has been currently ahead in polling agains my previous prediction. Therefore I have moved Florida in the tilt Democratic column <40%. New polls out of north Dakota showing Kevin Cramer up 10% to 16% have caused me to move North Dakota into the safe Republican column. This is likely because of the Kavanaugh hearings and the fact that it is North Dakota which generally votes republican with 70% of the vote.

Version: 8

Moved Nevada into the Republican Column for Dean Heller after his constant leads in recent Polling. Democrat Debbie Stabenow is now only ahead by 9 points in a recent poll leading me to conclude that senate race will narrow down.

Version: 7

Moved Arizona into the Republican Column due to Sinemas berating of Arizona in a released speech.

Version: 6

Moved Florida into the Republican column after Governor Scotts handling of the natural disaster in the panhandle. Made New Jersey lean democratic >50%.

Version: 5

Moved Tennessee into the lean republican column and moved Nevada into the tossup column.

Version: 4

Moved Indiana into the Tossup Column and dropped the Donelly victory to >40%

Version: 3

Moved Missouri into the Republican Column.

Version: 2

Moved Michigan into the safe democratic column <br />

Version History

Member Comments

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-07 @ 06:16:17
Well after seeing the true results what really surprised me was that Mike Braun won Indiana by such a large margin. Also it seems that Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis have won florida by narrow margins.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:30:57
I was surprised by FL and IN too. I think the polls underestimated Trump's popularity in FL, which helped Republicans, and overestimated the Democratic candidates popularity. Indiana was probably not as huge as a surprise since it's solidly Republican normally. I think Donnelly acting "Republican lite" actually backfired on him there, and actually cost him more votes than it gained for him, especially from the Democratic base there.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:32:05
Most were surprised by Nevada, but the polls always seem to underestimate Democrats there for whatever reason, unlike many other states where they overestimate Dems instead.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	5	142	593	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	1	362	101	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	364	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	144	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	20/35	53/70	75.7%	11	0	132	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	6	2	94	T	372
Aggregate Predictions	159/176	109/176	268/352	76.1%