|
Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:11
Prediction Map
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
I am very uncertain particularly about Nevada and Montana. I should note although this is my last prediction I switched Nevada and Montana previously and I think they could go either way. I think Jon Tester is popular enough to hold out but it will be an intensely close race. Early polling tells of Dean Heller pulling out in NV. Polling in MI has shown Stabenow's lead continually diminishing. Now at a puny +3.
Prediction History
Comments History
- hide
Version: 10 I am very uncertain particularly about Nevada and Montana. I should note although this is my last prediction I switched Nevada and Montana previously and I think they could go either way. I think Jon Tester is popular enough to hold out but it will be an intensely close race. Early polling tells of Dean Heller pulling out in NV. Version: 9 Stabenow's lead is continually diminishing. Michigan polls were horribly wrong with the 2016 Democrat primaries where they predicted a Hillary Win by over 10 points, but Bernie narrowly won. Version: 8 Stabenow's lead is continually diminishing. Michigan polls were horribly wrong with the 2016 Democrat primaries where they predicted a Hillary Win by over 10 points, but Bernie narrowly won. Version: 7 My bold prediction. In Michigan black vote will be up for James, and I think he will get more popular over time compared to an old, establishment partisan democrat, the polls have been showing Stabenow's lead tightening. Version: 6 My bold prediction. In Michigan black vote will be up for James, and I think he will get more popular over time compared to an old, establishment partisan democrat, the polls have been showing Stabenow's lead tightening. Version: 5 As James in MI gets more well known he will get a lead, he is doing well in the debates. Also the polling is incredibly off... if you want something for perspective, the Michigan democratic primary polls in 2016 predicted Hillary to have a THIRTY POINT LEAD in many cases. Bernie won the state by 1 percent, that's 31 POINTS OFF. Version: 4 James in MI will get increasingly popular as he is more well known and the debates get going. Will easily appeal to the black vote. Version: 3 Call me crazy but as James in MI gets more well known and the debates get going he will get a lead. Version: 1 Kavanaugh united the Republican party and inflamed Republicans, brought Trump's approval rating up aswell. Will be strong win for Republicans.
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
User Info
Links
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2020 President
2018 Senate
Back to 2018 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home