Toss-UP<br /> <br /> <br /> Arizona-> The democrats recruited a top tier candidate in congresswoman Synema. Synema is a membre of the Blue Dog coalition, which might help her in a conservative leaning state state like Arizona. Republicans are in their typical establishment/populist turmoil and whoever emerge as the winner of the contest between former state senator Ward and congresswoman McSally will have a hard time in november. But AZ is still AZ Democrats have not won a senatorial election since 1988 so it could be extremely close<br /><br /> <br /> <br /> California-> I have no doubt that the next senator of California will be a democrat, however due to CA jungle primary system it might end up as a very close race between the incumbent Feinstein and her left wing challenger Kevin de Leon<br /> <br /> <br /> Indiana-> Joe Donnelly is acting as a moderate in the senate and he badly needs to win a lot of Trump voters in order to retain his seat. Republicans have recruited top tier candidates like congressmen Messer and Rokita. Hopefully for Donnelly the republican primary might be nasty and expensive, forcing republicans to spend a lot in the primary <br /><br /> <br /> <br /> Missouri-> McCaskill is probably too liberal for a state that Trump won by almost 20 points. Republicans are already coalescing around state attorney general Josh Hawley. Despite midterm usually favours the party in opposition Missouri might be an outlier next year<br /> <br /> <br /> Montana-> Tester is another incumbent red state democrate that will badly need to win Trump voters. He might be helped by the fact that Montana voters still love to split tickets, like in 2016 when they re-elected governor Steve Bullock despite giving Trump a 21 points margin over Clinton in the presidential election. Tester already overcome a difficult re-election campaign in 2012 when he defeated congressman Rehberg, despite Romney winning the state by 14 points in the same night. Still this will be one of republicans top target<br /> <br /> <br /> Leaning Democrat<br /> <br /> Florida-> Bill Nelson is still pretty popular and 2018 might be a good year for democrats, but term limited governor Rick Scott might be a tough challenger to beat due to his high approval ratings and his possibility to pour lots of money in the campaign<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Nevada-> Dean Heller is in a very bad situation. He is the only incumbent republican in this cycle to represent a Clinton state, democrats have recruited a top tier challenger in congresswoman Rosen and has to face a primary challenge from a Bannonite. It's hard for me to see a path towards a victory for Heller<br /><br /> <br /><br /> New Jersey-> NJ is a blue state, but Menendez has reknown legal and ethical problems. I think that despite everything the state partisan lean and the national climate might still save him in 2018, but if I were the head of NJ democratic party I will try to recruit a credible primary challenge ASAP<br /><br /> <br /><br /> North Dakota-> Despite the state being overwhelmingly republican in presidential election, Heitkamp laberl in the state seem to be strong enough to convince lot of Trump voters to support her next year. Heitkamp has maintained a moderate and centrist voting record and has good relationship with the administration. Also, to date no top tier challenge has declared a run for the republican nomination<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Ohio-> Trump won big in Ohio, but Sherrod Brown populist label seems to fit well in the state. Also, republican front runner Josh Mandel, who already challenged Brown six years ago, looks exactly as the type of republican Trump voters love to hate. Still Mandel is young, well funded, and performed decently six years ago, so he might still give Brown a run for his money<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Pennsylvania-> Republican have recruited congressman Lou Barletta, whose populist and law and order profile, might help him to at least give senator Casey a run for his money, although Casey is favored due to incumbency and national climate<br /><br /> <br /><br /> West Virginia-> Manchin label in WV is very strong and his status as the most conservative democrat in congress will certainly help in a state Trump won by 42 points. Republican have recruited top tier candidates like state attorney general Morrisey and congressman Jenkins, but Manchin label of bool weevil democrat seems still strong enough to retain his seat <br /><br /> <br /><br /> Wisconsin-> despite Trump stunning victory, senator Baldwin populist profile seems to fit well the state and republicans have so far failed to recruit a top tier challenger. If there was a "Likely" column, this race will be in this column. Let's keep an eye, but Baldwin has a clear edge <br /><br /> <br /><br /> Leaning Republican<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Tennessee-> Congresswoman Blackburn seems to fit the state pretty well, so she shouldn't have lot of problems in a conservative state like TN, but democrats might recruit a top tier challenger like former governor Bredesen who might give her a run for her money<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Texas-> Trump won Texas, but his performance was the worse for a republican since 1996 and Ted Cruz seem to be not very popular in the state. Will this be enough for congressman Beto O' Rourke to pull a stunning upset? However remember that Democrats last victory in one of the big statewide race (president, governor, senator) is dated 1990<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Strong Democrat: Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (ID), Maryland, Massachussetts, Michigan Minnesota, New Mexico, New York,Rhode Island, Vermont (ID), Virginia, Washington <br /><br /> <br /><br /> Strong Republican: Mississippi, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah