Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-03 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-1	0	-1	23	0	23	0
Rep	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	6	2	8	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	23	47
Republican	9	42	51
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	31	27

Analysis

Claire McCaskill may have saved her election chances by supporting the President on his sending of troops to the US border. Democrats defending more seats will hurt their chances of taking the Senate. If they do pull off picking up the Senate, it will be humiliating for Republicans who had to defend 15 fewer seats than Democrats.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	32/35	28/35	60/70	85.7%	5	5	48	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	4	5	66	T	272
2020 President	52/56	45/56	97/112	86.6%	5	6	103	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	16/35	47/70	67.1%	3	4	358	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	6	10	T	293
2018 Senate	31/35	27/35	58/70	82.9%	1	3	15	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	23/36	53/72	73.6%	1	5	164	T	372
2016 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	24	1	114	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	24/34	55/68	80.9%	16	1	2	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	5/12	16/24	66.7%	8	2	25	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	132	72	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	25/36	60/72	83.3%	35	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	38	0	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	40	17	T	153
Aggregate Predictions	382/423	283/423	665/846	78.6%