Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-05 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	11
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	5
Ind	2
Tos	9
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-4	0	-4	20	0	20	-2
Rep	+4	0	+4	-1	-1	-2	5	2	7	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	23	45
Republican	11	42	53
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	33	26

Analysis

One of my least confident predictions ever. My "gut" tells me that Republicans are going to win either MT or WV, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Dems won all the Toss-ups.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					244
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	6	5	108	T	115
2022 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	4	0	205	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	25/36	58/72	80.6%	6	15	104	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	2	55	48	T	118
2020 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	4	5	14	T	684
2020 Senate	34/35	25/35	59/70	84.3%	3	7	7	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	2	85	211	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	150	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	11	1	4	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	14	3	94	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	116	40	T	149
2016 President	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%	18	1	17	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%	13	1	60	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	7	3	164	T	279
2015 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	3	2	3	T	112
Aggregate Predictions	328/359	244/359	572/718	79.7%