PredictionsNewsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - brucejoel99 (D-FL) ForumPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2017-12-30 Version:1

Prediction Map
brucejoel99 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
brucejoel99 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem27
 
pie
Rep4
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem25
 
pie
Rep4
 
Ind2
 
Tos2
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+2+400023023+4
Rep000-2-2-4404-4
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic27027
Republican404
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Though obviously a lot can change in a year, I currently project Democrats to have a net gain of 4 seats. Here's what I know: Incumbent senators of the opposition party (the party that doesn't control the White House) rarely lose in midterms, & Democrats have 2 clear pickup opportunities in addition to AL post-pickup (AZ & NV). They need a net gain of 3 seats (2 seats once Sen.-elect Jones is seated on Jan. 3rd) to get the majority, so the math is right there. Of course, the Democrats are defending seats on some very red turf, including in MO, ND, & WV, to name just a few. Now, Jones winning AL earlier this month can, in addition to candidate quality, very much be seen as a sign of the environment. And what Jones' win helps tell us about the 2018 environment is that it's gonna be a lot friendlier for Democrats than Republicans. Not to mention, we know Senate races tend to be more nationalized, & the odds are that Trump's gonna be super unpopular in 2018, perhaps w/ a much-ramped-up Russia investigation. So, if 2018 is a super Democratic-leaning year, which it appears to be shaping up to be, then I'd bet Democrats in red states will be safe & both AZ & NV are Democratic gains. Moreover, though, thinking AZ & NV are the Democrats' only pickup opportunities is thinking too narrowly about what states are in play. Like, if Democrats have a +10 advantage on the generic ballot & it's an anti-incumbent year, Ted Cruz will be in trouble in TX. Indeed, besides AZ & NV, the most Democratic-leaning seat that's up in 2018 & has a Republican incumbent is TX. Beyond that, Democrats even have a shot in TN if the Republicans nominate Marsha Blackburn & former Gov. Phil Bredesen wins the Democratic nomination. Ok, so Democrats' Senate chances basically come down to A.) where AZ & NV stand on the spectrum between "toss-up" & "leans Democrat" (both are leans Democrat); & B.) how red-state Democrats will fare. And w/ all factors considered (including w/ winning the special election for AL's Senate seat having given Democrats a chance to win control of the chamber in 2018), my opinion, obviously, is that Democrats are gonna win the Senate in 2018.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate /33 /33 /66 % pie
P 2018 Governor /36 /36 /72 % pie
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 17 40T
Aggregate Predictions 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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