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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-05 Version:16

Prediction Map
omelott MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
omelott MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem26
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+1+3-10-123023+2
Rep+10+1-2-1-3426-2
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic262349
Republican74249
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
523121
piepiepie

Analysis

The 2016 election results tore me down. It took one thing from me: hope. And now, I'm taking that hope back. <br /> <br /> The 2018 senate map does not look good for the Democrats. As usual, the Democrats are running a bunch of terrible establishment candidates; Sinema, McCaskill, Donnelly, Manchin, Rosen, Heitkamp, etc. It could be the case that Americans are still tired of establishment politics, and just like in 2016, they will boot establishment politicians. I wouldn't be surprised if Sinema lost, she's practically a Hillary Clinton clone; robotic, scripted, and uninspiring. <br /> <br /> But there's something inside of me that urges me to ingore all the bad candidates. There are many good candidates, like Beto O'Rourke, who bleed authenticity and listen to the concerns of their constituents. Candidates like Beto give me hope. They are a sign that the Democratic Party is changing, albeit one race at a time. Contrary to what Atlas thinks, I think Beto will win in Texas. He has all the ingredients he needs for an upset. <br /> <br /> Donald Trump is the most unpopular president in modern American history. On November 6, the American people will judge his performance. If history is any indication, the party in power will experience massive losses. Voter turnout will be at record highs since the civil rights movement. This may very well be the most important midterm election of our lives, and I'm excited to see how it will turn out.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 324
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 151
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie 191
P 2018 Senate 31/35 21/35 52/70 74.3% pie 16 1 170T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 24/36 56/72 77.8% pie 8 19 94T372
Aggregate Predictions 63/71 45/71 108/142 76.1% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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