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Date of Prediction: 2018-01-10 Version:1

Prediction Map
Bojicat MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Bojicat MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind2
 
Tos0
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-50-518018-5
Rep+50+5000628+5
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic182341
Republican134255
Independent202
pie

Analysis

I see a five-seat pick-up for the GOP. Scott consistently equals or edges past Nelson in the polls in FLA. That looks like a sleeper/surprise race. McCaskill in MO and Donnelly in IND, behind in every single poll to date, are goners, I think. If McSally wins the nomination in AZ, and it looks like she will, she will keep the state in GOP hands. Heller will survive the primary in NV and will be a far more formidable nut for Rosen to crack than she (or the Party) thinks.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate /33 /33 /66 % pie
P 2018 Governor /36 /36 /72 % pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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