PredictionsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - boatfullogoats (R-ISR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map
boatfullogoats MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
boatfullogoats MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep11
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-50-519019-5
Rep+50+5000639+5
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic192342
Republican144256
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
433211
piepiepie

Analysis

I am very uncertain particularly about Nevada and Montana. I should note although this is my last prediction I switched Nevada and Montana previously and I think they could go either way. I think Jon Tester is popular enough to hold out but it will be an intensely close race. Early polling tells of Dean Heller pulling out in NV. Polling in MI has shown Stabenow's lead continually diminishing. Now at a puny +3.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 32/35 11/35 43/70 61.4% pie 11 0 417T
Aggregate Predictions 32/35 11/35 43/70 61.4% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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