PredictionsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - dmurphy1984 (R-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-25 Version:1

Prediction Map
dmurphy1984 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dmurphy1984 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep11
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos7
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+10+1-30-321021-2
Rep+30+3-10-1538+2
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222345
Republican114253
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563323
piepiepie

Analysis

My gut feelings...<br /> <br /> ARIZONA: A state with a growing Latino population, but one where I am still not ready to concede to Democrats. Sinema might be a bit too liberal for the state. McSally wins a squeaker.<br /> <br /> FLORIDA: Rick Scott is not a strong Senate candidate, in spite of his 8 years a governor. Nelson hangs on.<br /> <br /> INDIANA: A Republican leaning state, on in which Trump did quite well. Tossup goes Republican.<br /> <br /> MISSOURI: Another state where Trump's popularity is fairly high, McCaskill loses in a close race.<br /> <br /> MONTANA: A Trump-favorable state, but seasoned veteran Tester is moderate enough to triumph again.<br /> <br /> NEVADA: I think is lost to Heller, demographics in the state just do not favor Republicans anymore.<br /> <br /> NORTH DAKOTA: Heitkamp is a goner in a rural, Trump-favorable state. Her vote against Kavanaugh sealed her fate.<br /> <br /> TENNESSEE: A strongly Republican state in modern times. Voters do not wish to turn back the clock with Bredesen. GOP hold.<br /> <br /> TEXAS: A surprisingly competitive (and vicious) Senate race. Texas' traditional conservatism prevails for Cruz.<br /> <br /> WEST VIRGINIA: Manchin wins reelection in the strongly pro-Trump state, in part due to his vote in favor of Kavanaugh and his unique stance as perhaps the only conservative Democrat left in Congress.


Member Comments
 By: dmurphy1984 (R-NY) 2018-10-25 @ 00:40:50 prediction Map
Feel free to opine...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 1 12 28T
P 2016 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 1 8T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 1 120T
P 2014 Senate 36/36 26/36 62/72 86.1% pie 2 1 4T
P 2012 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 508T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 0 144T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 27/37 60/74 81.1% pie 4 0 54T
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 7 474T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 5 6 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 176 107T
P 2004 President 55/56 37/56 92/112 82.1% pie 15 11 126T
Aggregate Predictions 436/466 296/466 732/932 78.5% pie


Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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