PredictionsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - jjnolla (R-PR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-18 Version:2

Prediction Map
jjnolla MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
jjnolla MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind3
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind2
 
Tos2
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-60-618018-6
Rep+50+5000639+5
Ind+10+1000202+1


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic182341
Republican144256
Independent303
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
463115
piepiepie

Analysis

I think there's an outside chance (very slim) of Gary Johnson winning in NM.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2018-10-18 @ 13:14:35 prediction Map
There are parts of this map that are reasonable (Republicans could certainly win North Dakota, Tennessee, Missouri, and Nevada, for instance) but there is a lot here that doesn't make much sense. Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are all plainly Safe Democratic, Missouri is definitely not Safe Republican, and Arizona, Florida, and Indiana don't seem like Lean Republican to me.

 By: boatfullogoats (R-ISR) 2018-10-22 @ 02:37:14 prediction Map
Pennsylvania is not safe blue. Claire Mccaskill and Krysten Sinema are completely trash candidates. Rick Scott is pretty popular, especially among hispanics.

 By: boatfullogoats (R-ISR) 2018-10-23 @ 11:39:41 prediction Map
I really wish Johnson has a chance... I totally doubt it though

 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2018-10-23 @ 21:21:22 prediction Map
"Pennsylvania is not safe blue." Take it from someone who lives here, it's safe this year.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 31/35 15/35 46/70 65.7% pie 2 19 362T
P 2016 President 50/56 33/56 83/112 74.1% pie 2 52 114T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 17/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 64 120T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 221 8T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 10/36 45/72 62.5% pie 2 21 282T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 1 21 123T
P 2012 President 50/56 37/56 87/112 77.7% pie 1 350 561T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 6/37 38/74 51.4% pie 4 2 408T
P 2010 Governor 23/37 8/37 31/74 41.9% pie 1 47 290T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 2 122 445T
P 2006 Governor 22/36 12/36 34/72 47.2% pie 1 122 297T
P 2004 President 48/56 31/56 79/112 70.5% pie 1 10 1285T
Aggregate Predictions 378/455 197/455 575/910 63.2% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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