Election 2020 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:2

Prediction Map

chaddyr23 Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

chaddyr23 Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	-1	0	-1	10	1	11	+5
Rep	+1	0	+1	-6	0	-6	14	3	17	-5
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	17	33	50
Republican	18	30	48
Independent	0	2	2

pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	29	20

Analysis

Hopefully KS surprises me. I hope IA and MT flip along with the givens of CO and AZ.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	22/35	56/70	80.0%		1	6	147	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	19/36	52/72	72.2%		1	5	216	T	272
2020 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%		3	12	130	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	20/35	49/70	70.0%		2	4	309	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%		1	145	51	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	0/3	1/6	16.7%		1	3	179	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	16/35	49/70	70.0%		1	42	272	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	15/36	44/72	61.1%		1	43	311	T	372
2016 President	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%		4	5	17	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	19/34	51/68	75.0%		3	1	60	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	20/36	54/72	75.0%		2	13	138	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	15/36	44/72	61.1%		1	137	171	T	300
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%		4	2	115	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	14/33	43/66	65.2%		1	47	221	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	30/52	8/52	38/104	36.5%		1	-	114	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	483/550	301/550	784/1100	71.3%

Links

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