PredictionsEndorse2020 Senatorial Predictions - Bomster (D-AZ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-03 Version:8

Prediction Map
Bomster MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Bomster MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+50+5-10-110111+4
Rep+10+1-50-515318-4
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic163349
Republican193049
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
513219
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

This year's Senate races are going to be incredibly interesting. Although Republicans are favored to remain in control of this chamber, and are favored to gain a seat in Alabama due to Republican's natural strength in the state, there are 6 seats incumbent Republicans need to worry about in 2020. The first one, and the one Republicans will certainly lose, is Colorado. As I mentioned in my Presidential prediction, Colorado is practically a solid Dem state at this point. It votes consistently Democratic in recent cycles and it's demographics are solidifying Dem strength in the state. Cory Gardner, a Trump-aligning conservative who was barely elected in 2014, will most likely not be able to survive in a state hostile to Trump and Republicans at this point, especially since he is likely to face popular former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper. The second state Republicans need to be worried about is my homestate Arizona. Arizona, as I also explained in my Presidential prediction, is undergoing an extraordinary political shift, with it's populace becoming more diverse and urbanized, thus becoming more receptive to and favorable to Democratic candidates. This demographic and political shift has severely weakened Republicans natural strength in the state, and perhaps indicates that the state is going the way of other formerly Republican southwestern states like Colorado and Nevada. Additionally the incumbent up for election, Martha McSally, is a weak candidate. She was never elected to her seat, only appointed to it after losing the other senate seat to Kyrsten Sinema, and she hasn't done much for my fellow Arizonans to endear them to her. Also she faces an even stronger candidate than Sinema, Mark Kelly, who not only is widely admired for his career as an astronaut but also has personal ties to the state through his wife Gabby Giffords, a former Arizona congresswoman who became a victim of gun violence and has since become an activist for gun control. Many pundits rate Arizona as a tossup, but since the only thing that can save McSally is increased Republican turnout because of Trump being on the ballot and even that is not assured, I'd say Arizona leans Democrat in the senate race this year. Next is Maine, a consistently Democratic state in Presidential elections who has consistently elected a Republican, Sara Collins, by very wide margins in the past, which is owed to her bipartisan image. This bipartisan image attracted Maine Democrats to her. However her votes taken in the Trump era, most notably her vote for Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court as well as her votes and statements against the impeachment have soiled this image and have seemingly cost her the admiration of her constituents, which have caused her approval ratings to plummet to below even Mitch McConnell, who unlike her atleast has natural Republican strength in his state to fall back on. Without the support of Maine Democrats Collins cannot win, and it appears she has lost much of this support. I rate this race a tossup, but I expect Sara Collins to be sent home this November. Next up are two races in typically strong Republican states that have unexpectedly become tossups. Montana's popular Democratic governor Steve Bullock has jumped into the race to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines, and given his high favorables and recognizability I'd say that Bullock has the best shot out of anyone to flip this seat to the Democrats. However because Steve Daines is not particularly unpopular, and will be sharing a ballot with Donald Trump, who is popular with Montanans, I imagine Daines will narrowly win off of Trump's coattails. Then there is Kansas. Kansas has been even more consistently Republican than Montana, yet also faces a race that will be far closer than initially expected. Kris Kobach, who narrowly lost the 2018 governor race to a Democrat because of his extreme right-wing views, is running again, this time for Senate, and should he win the nomination Democrats have a real shot of taking this seat, because similarly to Martha McSally Kris Kobach has already been judged by voters negatively and will likely be judged negatively again. However, Just like with Daines, I'd give this seat to Republicans because unlike in 2018 Kobach will be sharing a ballot with Trump, who will boost Republican turnout. Finally there is North Carolina, a state that is becoming more and more of a tossup. Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis narrowly won his seat in 2014, just barely beating his Democratic challenger despite low Democratic enthusiasm nationwide. So far it seems that he hasn't really endeared himself to North Carolinans, so he likely will face a very tough re-election bid especially since any coattails effect he could enjoy from Trump will be limited. It remains to be seen however if his opponent, Cal Cunningham, is a strong candidate, so for now I'll rate this race a tossup, but assume that Tillis will just barely win re-election.


Version: 2

This year's Senate races are going to be incredibly interesting. Although Republicans are favored to remain in control of this chamber, and are favored to gain a seat in Alabama due to Republican's natural strength in the state, there are 6 seats incumbent Republicans need to worry about in 2020. The first one, and the one Republicans will certainly lose, is Colorado. As I mentioned in my Presidential prediction, Colorado is practically a solid Dem state at this point. It votes consistently Democratic in recent cycles and it's demographics are solidifying Dem strength in the state. Cory Gardner, a Trump-aligning conservative who was barely elected in 2014, will most likely not be able to survive in a state hostile to Trump and Republicans at this point, especially since he is likely to face popular former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper. The second state Republicans need to be worried about is my homestate Arizona. Arizona, as I also explained in my Presidential prediction, is undergoing an extraordinary political shift, with it's populace becoming more diverse and urbanized, thus becoming more receptive to and favorable to Democratic candidates. This demographic and political shift has severely weakened Republicans natural strength in the state, and perhaps indicates that the state is going the way of other formerly Republican southwestern states like Colorado and Nevada. Additionally the incumbent up for election, Martha McSally, is a weak candidate. She was never elected to her seat, only appointed to it after losing the other senate seat to Kyrsten Sinema, and she hasn't done much for my fellow Arizonans to endear them to her. Also she faces an even stronger candidate than Sinema, Mark Kelly, who not only is widely admired for his career as an astronaut but also has personal ties to the state through his wife Gabby Giffords, a former Arizona congresswoman who became a victim of gun violence and has since become an activist for gun control. Many pundits rate Arizona as a tossup, but since the only thing that can save McSally is increased Republican turnout because of Trump being on the ballot and even that is not assured, I'd say Arizona leans Democrat in the senate race this year. Next is Maine, a consistently Democratic state in Presidential elections who has consistently elected a Republican, Sara Collins, by very wide margins in the past, which is owed to her bipartisan image. This bipartisan image attracted Maine Democrats to her. However her votes taken in the Trump era, most notably her vote for Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court as well as her votes and statements against the impeachment have soiled this image and have seemingly cost her the admiration of her constituents, which have caused her approval ratings to plummet to below even Mitch McConnell, who unlike her atleast has natural Republican strength in his state to fall back on. Without the support of Maine Democrats Collins cannot win, and it appears she has lost much of this support. I rate this race a tossup, but I expect Sara Collins to be sent home this November. Next up are two races in typically strong Republican states that have unexpectedly become tossups. Montana's popular Democratic governor Steve Bullock has jumped into the race to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines, and given his high favorables and recognizability I'd say that Bullock has the best shot out of anyone to flip this seat to the Democrats. However because Steve Daines is not particularly unpopular, and will be sharing a ballot with Donald Trump, who is popular with Montanans, I imagine Daines will narrowly win off of Trump's coattails. Then there is Kansas. Kansas has been even more consistently Republican than Montana, yet also faces a race that will be far closer than initially expected. Kris Kobach, who narrowly lost the 2018 governor race to a Democrat because of his extreme right-wing views, is running again, this time for Senate, and should he win the nomination Democrats have a real shot of taking this seat, because similarly to Martha McSally Kris Kobach has already been judged by voters negatively and will likely be judged negatively again. However, Just like with Daines, I'd give this seat to Republicans because unlike in 2018 Kobach will be sharing a ballot with Trump, who will boost Republican turnout. Finally there is North Carolina, a state that is becoming more and more of a tossup. Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis narrowly won his seat in 2014, just barely beating his Democratic challenger despite low Democratic enthusiasm nationwide. So far it seems that he hasn't really endeared himself to North Carolinans, so he likely will face a very tough re-election bid especially since any coattails effect he could enjoy from Trump will be limited. It remains to be seen however if his opponent, Cal Cunningham, is a strong candidate, so for now I'll rate this race a tossup, but assume that Tillis will just barely win re-election.


Version: 1

Dems are favored in Arizona and Colorado, but it's a tossup for Maine and North Carolina. It all depends on whether or not the Democratic nominee (most likely Biden) wins by a large margin or not.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 34/35 27/35 61/70 87.1% pie 1 70 37T305
P 2022 Governor 33/36 25/36 58/72 80.6% pie 1 70 104T272
P 2020 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 10 5 74T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 19/35 51/70 72.9% pie 8 3 241T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 42 147T293
Aggregate Predictions 164/173 121/173 285/346 82.4% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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