Election 2020 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-07-17 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	20
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	0	+4	-1	0	-1	10	1	11	+3
Rep	+1	0	+1	-4	0	-4	15	4	19	-3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	15	33	48
Republican	20	30	50
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	31	25

Analysis

Kansas will lean R if kobach wins. Texas and South Carolina are competitive but I still see the R's winning by high single digits. Also R's in the house gain about 5 seats, I'm saying this here because there's nowhere on Atlas to predict the house.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Hick defeats Gardner<br /> Gideon defeats Collins<br /> Byrne defeats Jones<br /> Kobach loses KS primary<br /> MI and AZ are decided by under 1%

Version History

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					245
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	272	1	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	26/35	58/70	82.9%	5	13	97	T	305
2022 Governor	31/36	27/36	58/72	80.6%	7	13	104	T	272
2020 President	52/56	46/56	98/112	87.5%	4	16	74	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	4	112	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	3/11	14/22	63.6%	3	16	264	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	9	130	T	192
Aggregate Predictions	161/179	131/179	292/358	81.6%

Links

	Senatorial Predictions - Most Recent
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