PredictionsEndorse2020 Senatorial Predictions - Sorenroy (D-NC) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-03 Version:13

Prediction Map
Sorenroy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Sorenroy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+50+5-10-110111+4
Rep+10+1-50-515318-4
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic163349
Republican193049
Independent022
pie

Analysis

My final Senate prediction. Just like with my presidential prediction, I likely would have gone back and checked out 538's errors when it came to forecasting third party vote share, but I just ran out of time. The change of Georgia's special election race is less of an actual change and more of a closer look at the runoff polls that have been done. I even think it would be lean Democrat if held today, but after a Biden win and a reversion towards the mean, I count it as a pure tossup.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 32/35 25/35 57/70 81.4% pie 3 1 24T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 2 3 6T372
P 2016 President 49/56 30/56 79/112 70.5% pie 25 1 280T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 21/34 53/68 77.9% pie 4 0 16T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 7/12 16/24 66.7% pie 7 0 25T279
Aggregate Predictions 155/173 111/173 266/346 76.9% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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