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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-03 Version:13
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
My final Senate prediction. Just like with my presidential prediction, I likely would have gone back and checked out 538's errors when it came to forecasting third party vote share, but I just ran out of time. The change of Georgia's special election race is less of an actual change and more of a closer look at the runoff polls that have been done. I even think it would be lean Democrat if held today, but after a Biden win and a reversion towards the mean, I count it as a pure tossup.
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