Predictions2020 Senatorial Predictions - jtsmd2 (D-AL) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-03-17 Version:2

Prediction Map
jtsmd2 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
jtsmd2 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos5
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+40+4-10-110111+3
Rep+10+1-40-415419-3
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic15015
Republican20020
Independent000
pie

Analysis

Version 2. Assumes Biden leads the ticket. Now that I've looked at more polling, NC is a clear tossup. I moved TX to tossup as well as it will winnow once a challenger is formalized. Iowa is now a toss-up. AZ is lean-D because Kelly is slaying it in the polls. ME will be closer than I previously thought. Need to see more polling that is actually reliable out of Georgia and Kentucky.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 368
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 178
P 2018 Senate 30/35 19/35 49/70 70.0% pie 1 1 272T483
P 2018 Governor 29/36 24/36 53/72 73.6% pie 1 2 164T372
Aggregate Predictions 59/71 43/71 102/142 71.8% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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