Election 2020 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-06-11 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	22
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	0	+2	-1	0	-1	10	1	11	+1
Rep	+1	0	+1	-2	0	-2	17	4	21	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	33	46
Republican	22	30	52
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	33	21

Analysis

Unless Trump loses in a landslide, I think the Republicans will keep the Senate. Polls aren't looking good for Republicans at the moment, but I think those are due to the ongoing unrest within the US. I doubt that will be a big issue come election day like it is now. I think the most vulnerable incumbent that I have winning right now is Susan Collins.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	1	191	266	T	305
2020 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	8	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	21/35	54/70	77.1%	1	148	101	T	423
Aggregate Predictions	115/126	84/126	199/252	79.0%

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