PredictionsEndorse2020 Senatorial Predictions - ground_x (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:1

Prediction Map
ground_x MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
ground_x MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+70+7-10-110111+6
Rep+10+1-70-713316-6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic183351
Republican173047
Independent022
pie

Analysis

11/2/2020:Final map. D 52, R 47, 1 runoff. Dems should actually more concerned about Senate control than the presidency. Jones loses in Alabama; Dems pick up Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Iowa (in that order of margin). Warnock in GA goes to a runoff, which will be difficult. Cunningham probably safe in NC. States to watch: GA (I worry that Ossoff falls just short of 50% plus one), and Iowa, though Ernst does poll behind Trump. Possible surprise: Montana--Bullock can win, but it will be tough.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 2 56T372
P 2016 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 8 0 246T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 4 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 2 0 164T279
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 0 158T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 1 145T300
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 1 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 1 5T228
P 2010 Senate 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 100T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 2 1 91T312
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 7 0 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 1 0 96T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 31/52 14/52 45/104 43.3% pie 2 - 85T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 14/49 5/49 19/98 19.4% pie 1 - 162T235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 4 0 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 16/36 51/72 70.8% pie 3 0 122T312
P 2004 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 30 2 14T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 632/734 408/734 1040/1468 70.8% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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