PredictionsEndorse2020 Senatorial Predictions - skolodji (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-11-09 Version:1

Prediction Map
skolodji MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
skolodji MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+4+1+5-10-110111+4
Rep+10+1-4-1-515318-4
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic163349
Republican193049
Independent022
pie

Analysis

Dems have a lot of potential for growth in the Senate but their recruitment has been somewhat meh--particularly in GA and IA.<br /> <br /> I expect they will have easy pick-ups in AZ and CO. <br /> <br /> ME also looks good provided that the Dem Presidential candidate holds their own in Maine. Given Trump's rural strength, it is a bit of a wildcard.<br /> <br /> I expect that Iowa will disappoint for Dems because its just so rural and that's where Republicans are dominating.<br /> <br /> Michigan may also be too close for comfort--we hope there isn't another Bill Nelson situation.<br /> <br /> But I expect that Dems may have opportunity on the Southern Atlantic Coast. VA has turned solid blue and Dems can make inroads in NC at all levels--also. Georgia is also an opportunity, notwithstanding a weak bench and recruitment challenges.<br /> <br /> My wildcard pick is SC. Jaime Harrison is raising a ton of money and Lindsey Graham is making mistakes. Plus, demographically, the state has lots of potential for Dems. Most of the white population in the state is urban/suburban and there just aren't the sorts of rural counties where Trump/Graham can run up the margin.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 1 6 67T483
P 2018 Governor 31/36 24/36 55/72 76.4% pie 1 8 122T372
P 2016 President 48/56 25/56 73/112 65.2% pie 3 0 496T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 2 67T279
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 2 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 13/36 40/72 55.6% pie 1 585 241T300
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 2 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 23/33 54/66 81.8% pie 4 8 40T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 3 1 5T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 33/52 7/52 40/104 38.5% pie 8 - 109T231
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 5 2 46T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 28/36 62/72 86.1% pie 7 0 19T312
Aggregate Predictions 405/466 261/466 666/932 71.5% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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